Last night, US data was released, and the November unemployment rate jumped to 4.6%, a high not seen in recent years. Once the news spread, the market immediately became active, and the probability of interest rate cuts in January next year surged sharply. Looks like the crypto market is about to take off? Hold on, it might not be as simple as it seems.

On the surface, the rising unemployment rate indeed makes the possibility of rate cuts closer. It's like being hungry and suddenly smelling roast duck—the hope is right in front of you. But there's a key issue: the central bank still isn't going to actually put this "meal" on the table. Previous official statements have been very clear: fluctuations in monthly data are not enough to immediately shift policy, especially since the overall employment market remains resilient. In other words: "The pie is indeed baking, but we have to wait a bit before we can eat."

As a result, the market's reaction is quite interesting. Seeing hope, it actually reinforces the idea that "we can't eat it in the short term." In this lukewarm rhythm, large institutions and major funds usually won't rush in impulsively; instead, they tend to wait and see—waiting for more explicit signals, such as economic performance after spring or confirmation that inflation continues to decline.

For investors, the current market logic becomes: "Expectations are there, but there's no direct catalyst." The market might even experience phased fluctuations due to capital game-playing and position adjustments. This is definitely not a good time to chase the rally; rather, it's a window for refining strategies.

So what should you do? Don't go all-in; focus on two actions: first, keep enough ammunition to build positions gradually, controlling the pace and avoiding investing everything at once; second, continuously observe new macro signals…