#大户持仓变化 The Underlying Currents in the Fed Chair Race

The recent twists are quite interesting. Harker previously had a not-so-good reputation—considered too aligned with Trump, directly opposed by Wall Street, who believed that if the Fed becomes a political tool, its independence would be compromised.

Waller, on the other hand, has maintained the "independent" persona. He has long been an advocate for the Fed’s independence, repeatedly warning that government interference could lead to runaway inflation. JPMorgan Chase CEO also supports him, and Wall Street is more receptive.

But this storyline has reversed.

Harker suddenly changed his tone, emphasizing that the Fed must be fully independent, that Trump has no influence on the FOMC, and that it can only make recommendations based on data. This is akin to a "bootlicker awakening." Trump is definitely not pleased, especially since Powell has already betrayed him once before, and now Harker is doing it again? Plus, his age is a factor...

What about Waller? He has maintained his independent image, which Wall Street likes, and Trump doesn’t dislike him either. Even more recently, Waller unexpectedly shifted to support a rate cut strategy, which was a pleasant surprise for Trump.

So the market’s answer is: Harker 51%, Waller 40%.

The logic behind this is quite clear—Wall Street wants a balance that reflects policy flexibility (rate cut expectations) without losing the professionalism of the central bank. The choice of the Fed Chair is essentially a silent game of chess about future liquidity environments and market risk appetite. Investors should keep a close eye on how this power balance line evolves.