#美联储降息 【SUI/LINK 48-Hour Technical Analysis · Cautious Positioning Amid Macro Pressure】

**SUI Short-Term Bearish Pattern**

The technical outlook is not very optimistic. OBV is declining, and open interest is shrinking, indicating increasing liquidation pressure on longs. The current support level is at $1.53, which is a critical line of defense. If it breaks downward, the risk-reward ratio could reach 2.20, making short positions with small size potentially profitable — but only with strict stop-losses.

Conversely, if the price can break above the $1.585 EMA resistance, the probability of a short-term rebound to $1.60 increases, but trading volume must also pick up to validate this move. On-chain data shows a net outflow of $11.35M, but whales are quietly accumulating, providing some mid-term support. Note that there is an $86.76M unlock on December 31, which could be a risk factor.

**Strategy: Focus on small short positions, closely monitor whether $1.585 can be broken.**

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**LINK Bull-Bear Stalemate**

The technical signals are mixed: bullish on the 1-hour chart, bearish on the 4-hour, but the daily MACD has turned positive. This asymmetric rhythm indicates a market in a tug-of-war.

Pressure comes from two sides — 94% of longs are being liquidated, and the funding rate is positive, all suppressing upward movement. However, reserves are decreasing, and institutions like DTCC and Coinbase are adopting LINK, so the fundamental story remains supported in the medium to long term.

The recent target range is locked between $13.00 and $14.00. Once it breaks above $13.71, the upward potential will truly open.

**Strategy: Mainly observe. Aggressive traders can take small short positions down to $13.00, or wait for a confirmed breakout above $13.71 before considering long positions.**

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**Macro Risks Cannot Be Ignored**

The Bank of Japan is scheduled for December 19, with an expected 25 basis point rate hike to 0.75%. Historically, such events often trigger a 20-30% decline in the crypto market — the market has already partially priced in this expectation, but black swan events never announce themselves.

Recommended action: **Reduce positions first.** After the event occurs and market reactions become clear, reassess the overall layout. Short-term trading must have stop-losses in place; don’t rely on luck.

**Bottom Line**

The fundamentals of SUI and LINK are solid — ecosystems are growing, institutions are entering, and applications are expanding. There is value in medium to long-term allocation. But in the next 48 hours, macro pressure dominates, and technicals do not give a clear direction. So, caution first, opportunity second.