The old tradition of the US stock market at the end of the year—seven days that can generate a year's momentum

Every year, by the end of December, Wall Street traders focus on one saying: the last five trading days plus the first two days of January often produce outperforming market movements.

What does the data say? Since 1950, the S&P 500 has a nearly 80% probability of rising during this window, with an average gain of 1.3%. The most remarkable is that in the past eight years, this has only been broken once in 2022. In other words, this is no longer a coincidence but a true market pattern.

Why does this happen? Year-end liquidity is abundant, institutional investors engage in net value management, and optimism spreads at year-end—all these factors combine to act as catalysts. Historical statistics also show that the last two weeks of December are consistently among the most vigorous periods of the year, a trend that has held for the past 75 years.

Based on this logic, many analysts are boldly predicting: can the US stock market surge to 7,000 points before the end of this year? With market momentum and this historical gift, it indeed seems worth looking forward to. Whether or not this wish comes true, this half-century-old pattern itself has added a layer of reliable certainty to year-end investments.