This weekend's market has been quite intense, with BTC briefly dropping below $89,000. Currently, the market's focus is on two major events—US non-farm payroll data and inflation indicators this week, and whether the Bank of Japan will continue to tighten monetary policy.

The logic is quite clear: if the US unemployment rate continues to rise, indicating a softening labor market, the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates again in January. This could partially offset the impact of the Bank of Japan's rate hikes.

Interestingly, on-chain data shows that although BTC prices have fallen, the selling pressure isn't as fierce as expected. The reason might be that weekend liquidity is inherently thin, and buy orders haven't kept pace. The real focus will be when the US stock market opens in the evening—after all, BTC is currently moving in tandem with the tech sector of US stocks.

Corporate actions are also quite revealing. MicroStrategy recently released another Bitcoin tracking product, clearly aiming to continue dollar-cost averaging. Looking at the data from the past two years—public companies' BTC holdings have surged from 266,000 BTC in 2024 to 1,082,000 BTC now, accounting for 5% of the circulating supply globally. MicroStrategy alone holds 61% of this, and the top ten companies together account for 84%, indicating high concentration.

On the institutional side, spot ETFs hold 1,311,000 BTC. BlackRock leads with 777,000 BTC; Fidelity follows closely with 202,000 BTC; Grayscale holds 167,000 BTC.

Global governments are also accumulating, totaling 615,000 BTC. The US government is the most active, holding 325,000 BTC; the Chinese government holds 190,000 BTC, ranking second.

Another detail—there are already 3,409,000 BTC that have been dormant on-chain for a full 10 years, mostly early exchange cold wallets. These "fossil" coins are essentially locked forever and won't exert market pressure.