2025-12-14 03:40:34

#加密生态动态追踪 Federal Funds Futures data has just been released, and the crypto market has collectively cooled down by half.

The probability of a rate cut in January 2026 is only 24.4%? Conversely, the chance of maintaining current rates is as high as 75.69%. What does this mean—high interest rates will continue for a while. For markets that rely on loose liquidity to survive, this is like a cold shower.

Bitcoin, as a "safe haven" in digital assets, still shows decent resilience. But the problem is, the market has a long memory. The previous sharp surge followed by sudden drop and liquidations of thousands left deep lessons. Who dares to leverage up in such a high-interest environment? The answer is—smart people dare not.

Altcoins are even more painful. Funds are shrinking, liquidity is flowing out. Projects without real application scenarios will be abandoned faster, but those backed by genuine ecosystems will be valued more—in the face of such sharp differentiation.

Looking ahead, the probability of a rate cut in March is just over 40%, which still offers some hope. If inflation data improves, the expectation of easing could reignite. But right now, institutional investors are very cautious, and ETF buying has cooled down. The most likely trend is—sideways consolidation accumulating strength, rather than a sharp rally.

The key question is: Should we buy the dip before the Federal Reserve's March meeting, or stay on the sidelines? What’s your opinion?

BTC0.11%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

13 Likes

Reward
13
7
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

MeltdownSurvivalist

· 9h ago

It's the same old story, high interest rates still need to be endured. I just want to ask, who else dares to leverage? --- 75% chance to maintain interest rates, now that's good. The little guys should wake up. --- Altcoins are dead in the water; those without application scenarios should have been gone long ago. --- Institutions are pulling back, and we're still here debating when to bottom fish... --- Hope for March? I think there's "hope," but let's not bother anymore. --- Bitcoin can withstand pressure, but now those adding leverage are just asking for death. --- Liquidity exhaustion is truly the end; projects without applications will be eliminated. --- Waiting for easing expectations to rekindle? Probably waiting until the Year of the Monkey or Horse. --- Volatility is accumulating strength; just listen, don't take it seriously. --- Smart people are hiding now; anyway, not adding leverage is definitely the right choice.

View OriginalReply0

GasWhisperer

· 12-16 05:36

75.69% holding rates through 2026... mempool's gonna stay congested, fees won't budge. the market's just oscillating in predictable wave patterns rn, nothing mystical about it. altcoins? they're getting liquidated before the gwei spikes even hit. only real plays are the ones with actual throughput, ngl.

Reply0

GateUser-e87b21ee

· 12-14 06:13

75% maintained interest rate? That means we still have to stick together for warmth; I really can't hold on anymore.

View OriginalReply0

CoconutWaterBoy

· 12-14 04:07

Here we go again, this time the interest rate cut expectation gets slapped in the face again. I really don't understand macroeconomics; it's better not to leverage up at all.

View OriginalReply0

AllInAlice

· 12-14 03:48

High interest rates are really incredible. Do I have to endure this for so long? My goodness. --- It's that same theory of differentiation again, I'm tired of listening to it. --- That liquidation really scared me straight. Now, looking at leverage makes my muscles remember and tremble. --- Institutions are cooling off, and we're still here pondering bottom-fishing, just hanging around. --- Is there hope in March? I trust ghosts more. --- The truth is, there are no good projects, just air. --- As soon as I saw the maintenance margin rate at 75%, I knew it would be sideways trading. It's boring. --- Let's wait. Anyway, rushing won't help. --- What's the use of BTC's strong resistance if liquidity dries up, it still has to fall. --- Feeling like I'm just repeatedly cutting the leeks, not surprised anymore. --- This wave is really a test of mentality. Staying still is more reliable.

View OriginalReply0

QuorumVoter

· 12-14 03:48

It's the same story again, how to keep playing high-interest environmental protection... Those who were wiped out before still haven't recovered.

View OriginalReply0

CoffeeNFTs

· 12-14 03:43

75% maintaining interest rate? Oh my, this number gives me a headache. I'm still accumulating core assets, but who has that spare money now?

View OriginalReply0