Ethereum – Update on the Four-Hour Timeframe

Like Bitcoin, the asset was marked by an upward movement. At the preparation of this material, it is trading around $3140. The price has approached a level where there is strong resistance (pWH) and were previously actively selling - $3230-$3250. At the bottom, there are unfilled (4H FVG) zones and the base of the last impulse - this is where the price will pull if the market wants to "cool its heads" before the Fed meeting.

Key landmarks

pWL $2718 is the lower limit of the current range, the base of the last growth;
pML $2620 — the support is lower, the border of a deeper correction;
4H FVG $2980-$2860 is the upper pocket of liquidity under the price;
4H FVG $2780-$2720 – bottom pocket just above pWL;
pWH $3230-$3250 — the nearest strong resistance;
Higher on the map are the zones $3300-$3400 and $3450-$3550 (4H FVG and the supply area of senior ТF).

Here we will also consider three basic scenarios.
Scenario A – Correction in FVG and search for a long

The idea here is as follows – the current growth fizzles out, Ethereum is taken to one of the FVGs from below, a base is formed there, and from there they try to drive the price back to pWH and higher.

In this regard, I would like to see the demolition of local longs and a departure to $2980-$2860 without an aggressive volume seller. Or a breakout to the $2780-$2720/pWL area $2718 с a clear buyback and tails down.

From there, you can look for a neat long according to the system: entry from the demand zone, stop loss beyond the low of the structure, the first targets are a return to $3050-$3100, then a test of $3230-$3250. Disability – a clean breakout and a stay below $2718.
Scenario B - Move to pWH and Hard Pullback

The key idea is to "collect stops and throw them out of the market." First, they push the price to the area of $3230-$3250, take liquidity above the highs, and then reverse the downward movement.

Signs of implementation:

entering pWH on increased volumes with a clear reaction from the seller;
quick return at $3100, without fixing above pWH;
dip through the upper FVG $2980-$2860 with almost no rebounds.

Targets: test $2780-$2720/pWL $2718, if the pressure increases, a possible puncture in the direction of pML $2620 ради removing stops under the support.

Disability: Sustained H4 anchorage above $3,250.
Scenario C - Breakout of pWH and working with the upper zones

A more bullish scenario: the market does not go into a deep correction, but breaks through pWH and moves to additional liquidity in the upper FVG.

What it might look like:

H4 consolidation over $3230-$3250 without a quick pullback;
movement to the zones of $3300-$3400, then $3450-$3550 with an increase in volumes.

The formation of another base or distribution there – based on the reaction, we decide whether to hold a medium-term long or look for a reversal.

Tactics: working with the trend from pullbacks after a breakout of pWH; potential shorts - only with clear distribution signals and a synchronous reversal for bitcoin.
Total

The general logic with working on Ethereum is as follows:

work from zones, not from the middle of the move: $2980-$2860, $2780-$2720, $2718, $3230-$3250, $3300-$3400, $3450-$3550;
let's look at the link with Bitcoin: the implementation of bearish scenarios for bitcoin strengthens option B for ETH; holding the range $87 000-$93 000 and a rebound in bitcoin will support A/C.
week with the Fed, so we leave the risk on the idea moderate, do not overestimate the leverage and wait for our setups, and do not trade every fluctuation.