The market is betting on a prolonged shutdown: Polymarket gives 32% on an extension after mid-November.

The predictive market Polymarket has revealed its cards regarding the American shutdown. Judging by the bets of traders, most have already come to terms with the fact that the standoff between Congress and the White House will last longer than desired.

Here are the probabilities distributed:

• November 4-7: only a 20% chance to complete
• November 8-11: 33% (the most optimistic scenario)
• November 12-15: 16% (already unlikely)
• After November 16: 32% (the highest probability)

In other words, the market believes that the performance in Washington will last at least a month.

Why is this important?

If the shutdown is prolonged, it could hit the American economy: delays in the distribution of government funds, instability in the markets, and a general decrease in risk appetite. The cryptocurrency market often follows the stocks, so volatility could hit there as well.

Investors are already on alert — it seems very likely that the political theater in the States will enter a new phase.