Crypto in 2025: where are we in the 4-year cycle?

Question

Most traders think that crypto moves chaotically. In fact, it is a predictable cycle tied to the Bitcoin halving — an event that occurs every 4 years when the reward for mining BTC is cut in half, making it scarcer and more valuable.

Four Phases of the Crypto Cycle

1. Crypto winter (bear) After the peak of the previous cycle, the market collapses. People forget about crypto, the media screams “crypto is dead!”, but this is the BEST time to accumulate. The last winter: 2022-2023, when BTC fell from $69k to $15k.

2. Crypto Spring (recovery) The market is waking up. Whales are starting to quietly buy, altcoins are showing signs of life. 2023-beginning of 2024: bitcoin has risen from $15k to $50k+.

3. Crypto Summer ( Bull Run ) EVERYONE wants to participate. BTC hits historic highs, large investors are rushing in, FOMO is taking over. We are here — the end of 2024 / February 2025.

4. Crypto Autumn (alt-season) The craziest time. BTC is slowing down, altcoins are skyrocketing on a parabola. Ethereum is growing faster than BTC, meme coins are giving 50x-100x. Forecast: end of 2025.

Where exactly are we now?

✓ BTC has set new ATHs — the crypto summer is in full swing ✓ Whales continue to accumulate ✓ Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) is high but starts to decline — a signal of phase change ✓ Altcoins are rising, but not yet in a parabola.

This means: the alt-season may start from April-May 2025.

What to do?

Now (summer): Don't catch everything, watch BTC.D. When dominance falls below 50%, altcoins will go to the moon.

When autumn begins: This is the last chance for big gains. Altcoins will soar, but remember — when even the worst meme coins grow 100x, the peak is already near.

After the peak: Don't panic during the crash. The crypto winter will return, but this is just the beginning of a new cycle. Those who survived 2022-2023 know: this is temporary.

The main rule

Most wait until it is too late. If you want to catch the alt-season — act BEFORE the mass FOMO. Take profit BEFORE the crash. The cycle repeats, and if history doesn’t lie, the biggest gains of altcoins in 2025 are still ahead.