Will BTC reach 150,000 USD by the end of the year?

Conclusion: will arrive
According to the gradually easing macro environment in the United States, the pause in balance sheet reduction, and the continuous net inflow into spot ETFs, indicators like K-line-EMA 20 and Fibonacci can confirm that BTC is still in a consolidation and upward cycle. The core reason is that publicly traded companies like MicroStrategy have been continuously increasing their holdings and adopting a Never Sell strategy, which will lead to a decreasing supply of circulating tokens. As a result, the price fluctuations of BTC will become smaller. Coupled with the favorable macro environment, BTC may gradually evolve from a 4-year cycle to a fluctuating market that follows the US stock market.

Institutional adoption and ETF inflows: Bitcoin ETFs have attracted over $50 billion in funds, with an expected increase of $50–100 billion by the end of the year. TD Cowen analysts predict this will drive the price to $141,000. Additionally, the CoinDCX model shows a target of $130,000 to $135,000 for December.

Historical cycles and seasonal factors: After the Bitcoin halving (April 2024), Q4 tends to be a strong period, with past cycles seeing increases of over 40%. The current price has formed a "V-shaped bottom" pattern, similar to the rebound path of Q4 2021.

Macroeconomic tailwind: The potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (expected in the November meeting) and the improvement in global liquidity will benefit risk assets. The Finder expert panel predicts an average of $145,000 by the end of the year. Meanwhile, the decline in exchange balances (increase in long-term holders) indicates a tightening supply.

Technical and On-Chain Indicators: The 200-day moving average is sloping upwards, supporting continued upward movement. If the price holds above $115,000, the probability of reaching the target of $130,000 is over 70%. On-chain data shows that whales (large holders) are actively accumulating, reducing selling pressure.