Macro Research Report on the Crypto Market: Opportunities Amidst Range-Bound Monetary Policy and Global Turmoil, Latest Outlook for the Crypto Market in the Second Half of the Year

I. Summary

In the first half of 2025, the global macro environment remains highly uncertain. The Federal Reserve has repeatedly paused interest rate cuts, indicating that monetary policy has entered a “wait-and-see tug-of-war” phase, while the Trump administration’s tariff increases and escalating geopolitical conflicts (such as the Israel-Palestine conflict, the Middle East energy line crisis, and the destruction of Russian warplanes) further tear apart the structure of global risk appetite. We will assess the opportunities and risks in the cryptocurrency market for the second half of the year from five macro dimensions (interest rate policy, US dollar credit, geopolitical issues, regulatory trends, and global liquidity), combining on-chain data with financial models, and propose three core strategic recommendations that cover Bitcoin, stablecoin ecosystems, and the DeFi derivatives sector.

2. Global Macroeconomic Environment Review (First Half of 2025)

In the first half of 2025, the global macroeconomic landscape continues the multiple uncertainties characteristic since the end of 2024. Under the interplay of multiple factors such as lackluster growth, sticky inflation, unclear outlook for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, and escalating geopolitical tensions, there is a significant contraction in global risk appetite. The dominant logic of macroeconomics and monetary policy has gradually evolved from “inflation control” to “signal game” and “expectation management.” The cryptocurrency market, as a frontline domain of global liquidity changes, also exhibits typical synchronized fluctuations in this complex environment.

First of all, from the review of the Fed’s policy path, at the beginning of 2025, the market had formed a consensus on the expectation of “three interest rate cuts within the year”, especially in the fourth quarter of 2024, in the context of a significant decline in PCE quarter-on-quarter growth, the market generally expects that 2025 will enter the beginning of the easing cycle under “stable growth + moderate inflation”. However, this optimism was soon met with reality at the March 2025 FOMC meeting. At the time, the Fed, despite holding its ground, issued a statement after the meeting stressing that “inflation is far from target” and warned that the labor market remained tight. Since then, the CPI has rebounded more than expected year-on-year for two consecutive times in April and May (3.6% and 3.5% respectively), and the year-on-year growth rate of core PCE has always remained above 3%, reflecting that “sticky inflation” has not subsided as the market expects. The structural causes of inflation – such as rigid increases in housing rents, sticky wages in the service sector, and periodic shocks in energy prices – have not fundamentally shifted.

Faced with the pressure of rising inflation, the Federal Reserve chose to “pause interest rate cuts” again at the June meeting, and through the dot plot, lowered the expectation for the number of interest rate cuts in 2025 from three adjustments at the beginning of the year to two. The year-end expectation for the federal funds rate remains above 4.9%. More importantly, Powell hinted at the press conference that the Federal Reserve has entered a “data-dependent + watch-and-wait” phase, rather than the previously interpreted “confirmation period of the easing cycle” by the market. This marks a shift in monetary policy from “directional” guidance to “timing” management, significantly increasing the uncertainty of the policy path.

On the other hand, the first half of 2025 also shows a phenomenon of “increasing divergence” between fiscal policy and monetary policy. As the Trump administration accelerates the implementation of the “strong dollar + strong border” strategic combination, the U.S. Treasury announced in mid-May that it would “optimize the debt structure” through various financial means, including promoting the regulatory legislation of stablecoins, attempting to leverage Web3 and fintech products to spill over U.S. dollar assets, and achieve liquidity injection without significant balance sheet expansion. This series of fiscal-led growth stabilization measures is clearly decoupling from the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction of “maintaining high interest rates to suppress inflation,” making market expectation management increasingly complex.

The Trump administration’s tariff policy also became one of the dominant variables in the first half of the year in global market turmoil. Since mid-April, the United States has imposed a new round of tariffs ranging from 30% to 50% on China’s high-tech products, electric vehicles, and clean energy equipment, and has threatened to further expand the scope. These measures are not simply trade retaliation, but more of an attempt by the government to create inflationary pressures through “imported inflation”, which in turn will force the Fed to cut interest rates. Against this backdrop, the contradiction between the dollar’s credit stability and the interest rate anchor has been brought to the forefront. Some market participants began to question whether the Fed is still independent, triggering a repricing of long-term Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield surging as high as 4.78%, while the term spread between the 2-year and 10-year reverted negative in June, raising recession expectations again.

At the same time, the continued geopolitical escalation has had a substantial impact on market sentiment. UKRAINE’S SUCCESSFUL DESTRUCTION OF A RUSSIAN STRATEGIC BOMBER TU-160 IN EARLY JUNE SPARKED A HIGH-INTENSITY VERBAL EXCHANGE BETWEEN NATO AND RUSSIA; In the Middle East, the price of Brent crude oil exceeded $130, hitting a new high since 2022 after Saudi Arabia’s critical oil infrastructure was hit by a suspected Houthi attack in late May, which hurt oil supply expectations. Unlike the market reaction in 2022, this round of geopolitical events did not drive the simultaneous rise of Bitcoin and Ethereum, but instead prompted a large amount of safe-haven funds to flow into the gold and short-term U.S. bond markets, and the spot price of gold once exceeded $3,450. This change in market structure suggests that Bitcoin is still seen more as a liquid trader than a macro safe-haven asset at this stage.

From the perspective of global capital flows, there is a clear trend of “de-emerging marketization” in the first half of 2025. IMF data and JP Morgan’s cross-border capital tracking show that net outflows from emerging market bonds in Q2 reached the highest level since the pandemic began in March 2020, while the North American market experienced a relative net inflow of funds due to the stability brought by ETFs. The crypto market has not been completely unaffected. Although Bitcoin ETFs have seen a cumulative net inflow of over $6 billion this year, demonstrating strong performance, mid- and small-cap tokens and DeFi derivatives have experienced significant capital outflows, indicating notable signs of “asset stratification” and “structural rotation.”

In summary, the first half of 2025 presents a highly structured uncertain environment: monetary policy expectations are sharply contested, fiscal policy intentions are spilling over into US dollar credit, geopolitical events are frequent creating new macro variables, capital is flowing back to developed markets, and the structure of risk-averse funds is being reconstructed. All these factors lay a complex foundation for the operating environment of the crypto market in the second half of the year. It’s not merely a question of “whether to cut interest rates,” but rather a multi-faceted battleground revolving around the reconstruction of credit anchored by the US dollar, the struggle for dominance in global liquidity, and the integration of digital asset legitimacy. In this battle, crypto assets will seek structural opportunities in institutional gaps and liquidity redistribution. The next phase of the market will no longer belong to all coins, but to investors who understand the macro landscape.

3. The Systemic Evolution of the US Dollar System Reconstruction and the Role of Cryptocurrencies

Since 2020, the dollar system has been undergoing the deepest structural reconstruction since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. This reconstruction is not driven by the evolution of payment tools at a technical level, but rather stems from the instability of the global monetary order itself and a crisis of institutional trust. Against the backdrop of severe fluctuations in the macro environment in the first half of 2025, the dollar hegemony is facing both an imbalance in internal policy consistency and external challenges from multilateral monetary experiments that question its authority, and its evolutionary trajectory profoundly affects the market position, regulatory logic, and asset role of cryptocurrencies.

From an internal structural perspective, the biggest problem facing the US dollar credit system is the “erosion of the logic of monetary policy anchoring.” Over the past decade, the Federal Reserve, as an independent inflation target manager, has had a clear and predictable policy logic: tightening during economic overheating and loosening during downturns, with price stability as the primary goal. However, in 2025, this logic is gradually being eroded by the “strong fiscal-weak central bank” combination represented by the Trump administration. The Biden administration’s insistence on fiscal easing and monetary independence has gradually been reshaped by Trump into a “fiscal priority” strategy, the core of which is to leverage the global dominance of the dollar to export domestic inflation in reverse, indirectly prompting the Federal Reserve to adjust its policy path in line with the fiscal cycle.

The most intuitive manifestation of this policy fragmentation is that the Ministry of Finance continues to strengthen the shaping of the path of the internationalization of the US dollar, while bypassing traditional monetary policy tools. For example, the “Strategic Framework for Compliant Stablecoins” proposed by the Ministry of Finance in May 2025 explicitly supports the global spillover of US dollar assets through on-chain issuance in the Web3 network. Behind this framework is the intention of the US dollar to evolve from a “financial state apparatus” to a “technology platform state”, the essence of which is to shape the “distributed monetary expansion capability” of the digital dollar through a new financial infrastructure, so that the US dollar can continue to provide liquidity to emerging markets without the central bank’s balance sheet expansion. This path integrates U.S. dollar stablecoins, on-chain Treasury bonds, and U.S. commodity settlement networks into a “digital dollar export system”, which is intended to strengthen the network effect of U.S. dollar credit in the digital world.

However, this strategy has also raised concerns in the market about the “disappearance of the boundary between fiat currency and crypto assets.” As the dominance of dollar stablecoins (such as USDT and USDC) in crypto trading continues to rise, their essence has gradually evolved into “a digital representation of the dollar” rather than “crypto-native assets.” Correspondingly, purely decentralized crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen their relative weight in the trading system decline. From the end of 2024 to Q2 2025, CoinMetrics data shows that the trading pairs of USDT against other assets in the total trading volume on major global exchanges rose from 61% to 72%, while the spot trading shares of BTC and ETH both declined. This change in liquidity structure signifies that the dollar credit system has partially “absorbed” the crypto market, with dollar stablecoins becoming a new source of systemic risk in the crypto world.

At the same time, from the perspective of external challenges, the dollar system is facing continuous probing from multilateral currency mechanisms. Countries such as China, Russia, Iran, and Brazil are accelerating the advancement of local currency settlement, bilateral clearing agreements, and the construction of commodity-linked digital asset networks, aiming to weaken the dollar’s monopoly in global settlement and promote the steady establishment of a “de-dollarization” system. Although an effective network to counter the SWIFT system has not yet formed, its “infrastructure substitution” strategy has already created marginal pressure on the dollar settlement network. For example, the e-CNY, led by China, is accelerating the connection of cross-border payment interfaces with multiple countries in Central Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, and exploring the use scenarios of central bank digital currencies (CBDC) in oil, gas, and bulk commodity transactions. In this process, crypto assets are caught between the two systems, and their “institutional affiliation” issue is becoming increasingly blurred.

Bitcoin, as a special variable in this landscape, is shifting its role from a “decentralized payment tool” to a “sovereign-agnostic anti-inflation asset” and “liquidity channel under institutional gaps.” In the first half of 2025, Bitcoin is being widely used in some countries and regions to hedge against local currency depreciation and capital controls, particularly in currency-unstable countries such as Argentina, Turkey, and Nigeria, where the “grassroots dollarization network” composed of BTC and USDT has become an important tool for residents to hedge risks and achieve value storage. On-chain data shows that in the first quarter of 2025, the total amount of BTC flowing into Latin America and Africa through peer-to-peer trading platforms like LocalBitcoins and Paxful increased by over 40% year-on-year, with such transactions significantly circumventing domestic central bank regulations and reinforcing Bitcoin’s function as a “grey hedge asset.”

However, it is important to be aware that because Bitcoin and Ethereum have not yet been incorporated into the national credit logic system, their ability to withstand “policy stress tests” is still insufficient. In the first half of 2025, the regulatory pressure from the U.S. SEC and CFTC on DeFi projects and anonymous trading protocols continues to intensify, particularly with new investigations into cross-chain bridges and MEV relay nodes within the Layer 2 ecosystem, prompting some funds to withdraw from high-risk DeFi protocols. This reflects that in the process of the dollar system re-dominating the market narrative, crypto assets must reposition their role, no longer as a symbol of “financial independence,” but more likely as a tool for “financial integration” or “institutional hedging.”

The role of Ethereum is also undergoing a transformation. Along with its dual evolution into a data verifiable layer and a financial execution layer, its underlying function is gradually evolving from a “smart contract platform” to an “institutional access platform.” Whether it is the on-chain issuance of RWA assets or the deployment of government/corporate stablecoins, more and more activities will incorporate Ethereum into their compliance frameworks. Traditional financial institutions such as Visa, JP Morgan, and Paypal have deployed infrastructure on Ethereum-compatible chains like Base and Polygon, forming an “institutional layer” with the native DeFi ecosystem. This means that Ethereum’s position as a “financial middleware” has been restructured, and its future direction will not depend on the degree of “decentralization,” but rather on the degree of “institutional compatibility.”

The dollar system is重新主导 the digital asset market through three paths: technological spillover, institutional integration, and regulatory infiltration. Its goal is not to eliminate crypto assets, but to make them embedded components of the ‘digital dollar world.’ Bitcoin, Ethereum, stablecoins, and RWA assets will be reclassified, revalued, and re-regulated, ultimately forming a ‘Broad Dollar System 2.0’ anchored by the dollar and represented by on-chain settlements. In this system, true crypto assets are no longer ‘rebels,’ but rather ‘arbitrageurs in the institutional gray area.’ The future investment logic is no longer just ‘decentralization brings value reassessment,’ but rather ‘whoever can embed into the reconstructed structure of the dollar will hold the institutional dividend.’

4. On-chain Data Perspective: New Changes in Capital Structure and User Behavior

In the first half of 2025, on-chain data presents a complex picture of “structural sedimentation and marginal recovery intertwined.” The proportion of long-term holders (LTH) of Bitcoin has reached a new historical high, the supply pattern of stablecoins has shown significant recovery, and the DeFi ecosystem exhibits strong risk restraint even as its activity levels recover. These indicators reflect the essence of investor sentiment oscillating between risk aversion and exploration, as well as the highly sensitive process of capital structure reconstruction in the entire market in response to changes in policy cadence.

First of all, the most representative structural signal comes from the continuous increase in the proportion of long-term holders on the Bitcoin chain. As of June 2025, more than 70% of Bitcoin has been on the chain for more than 12 months without moving, a record high. The trend of increasing LTH holdings not only indicates that the confidence of long-term investors in the market has not been shaken, but also represents the continuous contraction of circulating supply, which forms a potential support for prices. According to Glassnode data, the distribution curve of Bitcoin holding time is “shifting to the right”, and more and more on-chain coins are locked up to a time range of more than 2 or 3 years. Behind this behavior is no longer just the emotional embodiment of the “coin hoarding party”, but also the structural funds - especially traditional funds such as family offices and pension allocation institutions - have begun to dominate the distribution logic of BTC on the chain. Correspondingly, short-term activity has declined significantly. The decline in the frequency of on-chain transactions and the continuous decline in the Coin Days Destroyed indicator further confirm the trend of market behavior switching from “high-frequency game” to “long-term allocation”.

This structural sediment is also deeply aligned with institutional behavior patterns. Analysis of multi-signature wallets and on-chain entity distribution indicates that currently, over 35% of Bitcoin is controlled by highly concentrated, long-term inactive large addresses. These addresses exhibit clear characteristics of centralization, mostly established in the fourth quarter of 2023 or early 2024, and then remained silent for an extended period. Their existence has changed the previously retail-dominated currency-based speculation landscape, laying the foundational structure for a new round of bull-bear conversion.

Meanwhile, the stablecoin market has gone through a noticeable bottom recovery cycle. From the end of 2024 to the beginning of 2025, USDC experienced a market capitalization decline for five consecutive months due to the Federal Reserve’s liquidity contraction and uncertainties regarding BSA regulation. However, entering the second quarter of 2025, USDC’s market capitalization returned to a growth trajectory, reaching $62 billion by June, regaining the growth rate level of USDT. This growth is not an isolated event but is driven by a broader expansion of the stablecoin ecosystem. New stablecoins such as USDP issued by Paxos and USDe by Ethena recorded significant growth in the first half of the year, contributing over $3 billion in new supply. Notably, this round of stablecoin expansion is more rooted in real economic activity scenarios rather than the past “earning interest on coins” or pure speculation.

The rise in on-chain activity also proves that stablecoins are returning to their essence as “payment and circulation tools” among on-chain users, rather than being merely “counterparty assets” in the exchange matching system. Taking the Base chain as an example, in Q2 2025, the monthly active addresses of USDC grew by 41% month-on-month, surpassing the growth rates of Ethereum mainnet and Tron during the same period, reflecting that stablecoins are being used in a more native and frequent manner within the L2 ecosystem. The increase in cross-chain circulation is also significant; the cross-chain activities of stablecoins on bridging protocols like Wormhole and LayerZero peaked in May, indicating that funds are seeking more efficient paths for payment and deployment, rather than merely obtaining trading profits through arbitrage. This trend also reinforces the long-term trajectory of the crypto market evolving toward a multi-chain environment integrated with real economic scenarios.

Compared to the “structural rebalancing” of Bitcoin and stablecoins, the on-chain data of the DeFi ecosystem shows a subtle situation of “active repair but risk neutrality.” In the first half of 2025, decentralized derivatives and perpetual contract protocols demonstrated far greater activity than other sub-sectors, especially platforms like Abstract, Aevo, and Hyperliquid, where user transaction counts and contract interaction frequency rapidly increased. Aevo’s daily trading volume once exceeded $1.5 billion in May, and Abstract’s daily active user count grew over 60% year-on-year, reflecting users’ preference for speculative derivatives with “low thresholds and high leverage.” However, this enthusiasm is masked by the reality of low capital utilization. While the TVL of most platforms is growing, the increase in average leverage multiples and open contract volumes does not correspond proportionally, indicating that market participants are frequently testing the waters but there has not been a systemic accumulation of leverage overall. This contradictory phenomenon reveals a core signal: although market enthusiasm is rising, the risk appetite for capital has not truly been released, and many are in a strategic wait-and-see mode, “waiting for policy clarity.”

Based on the triple characteristics of long-term precipitation on the Bitcoin chain, stable coin supply repair and DeFi capital risk restraint, it can be found that the on-chain data in the first half of 2025 reveals that the crypto market is in a complex junction range of “chip reconstruction, expected compression, and heat margin repair”. The capital structure is shifting from the pan-hot money dominance in 2023-2024 to a composite structure with structural precipitation as the base and short-term transactions as the table, and user behavior is also repeatedly pulled between short-term speculation and long-term allocation. Under this structure, although it is difficult for the crypto market to form a sustained unilateral rise in the short term, once the macro policy path is clear, such as the Federal Reserve entering a clear interest rate cut cycle, the breakthrough of stablecoin legislation or the arrival of ETF incremental funds, etc., this structure will quickly release its inherent bullish momentum. Therefore, although the on-chain data is quiet on the surface, it actually contains undercurrents, which has become one of the key variables to judge the market resilience and inflection point timing in the second half of the year.

5. Analysis and Strategy Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market Trends in the Second Half of the Year

Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, the crypto market will enter a critical turning point characterized by macro and structural resonance. The core variables will no longer be limited to single price fluctuations or localized hype, but will involve a dynamic game among multi-dimensional macro pathways, institutional certainty, and on-chain structural reconstruction. Based on the current known policies and on-chain signals, the evolution of the crypto market is approaching a “Repricing Window”: the correction of existing policy expectations, the repricing of the real interest rate environment, and the reshaping of investors’ risk pricing models will collectively constitute the main logical framework for market volatility and trends in the next 6 to 9 months.

From a macroeconomic policy perspective, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path and the marginal changes in US dollar liquidity will continue to be a global determining force. The current tone of “delayed rate cuts and slow pacing” has been widely accepted by the market. However, with the marginal loosening of the US labor market, a decline in corporate investment willingness, and indicators such as CPI and PCE showing potential deflationary signs, the probability of the Federal Reserve entering a “symbolic rate cut” or even a “preventive rate cut” channel is increasing. Once the Federal Reserve takes its first rate cut action between mid-year and early Q3, even if it’s a small attempt of 25bps, it may quickly trigger an emotional amplification effect in the cryptocurrency market. Historical experience shows that at the beginning of each round of liquidity release, the elasticity of crypto assets is often higher than that of traditional risk assets, due to their nature as “pure liquidity trading targets.” Therefore, once the signal for the rate cut is confirmed, the market may witness a scenario similar to the “first rising logic assets, then disseminating thematic rotations” seen after Q3 2020.

However, the risks cannot be ignored. The uncertainty brought about by the global political cycle will continue to overshadow asset pricing logic. The U.S. presidential election, the redistribution of power in the European Parliament, the financial decoupling trend between Russia and the West, and the new round of trade disputes between China and the U.S. may all cause periodic disturbances in investor risk appetite and capital flows. Especially if Trump wins the election, his extreme policy tendencies regarding technology regulation, the weaponization of the dollar, and Bitcoin as a strategic reserve may temporarily benefit Crypto, but the accompanying geopolitical shocks and financial decoupling risks could also trigger a “risk re-rating” of the global financial system. Therefore, the entire cryptocurrency market in the second half of the year will be dominated by the “scissors difference” of moderately accommodative macro policies and highly uncertain geopolitical situations, presenting a volatile upward pattern of “pulse rise - policy suppression - structural rotation.”

From the perspective of market structure, the current phase of the cryptocurrency market is entering a mid-to-late stage characterized by “ETF funds dominance, stabilization of on-chain structure, and slowing thematic rotation.” Bitcoin spot ETFs have already become the dominant incremental force in the market, with their net inflow rhythm almost directly determining the BTC price trend. Although the ETF inflow data slowed down in May and June, the long-term structure has not reversed; instead, it shows that mainstream institutional funds are waiting for better allocation timing. Meanwhile, the on-chain structure is gradually stabilizing. The distribution of chips dominated by LTH is becoming less liquid, the active repair of stablecoins as on-chain payment and deployment tools, and the continuous expansion of the DeFi ecosystem under low leverage conditions all indicate that the cryptocurrency market is forming a more resilient internal operating system. Once the macro environment aligns, the structural elasticity release will far exceed that of previous speculation-dominated cycles.

However, it is worth noting that thematic rotation is significantly slowing down. From the end of 2024 to the beginning of 2025, hotspots such as AI+Crypto, RWA, and Meme 2.0 took turns dominating market attention and capital focus. However, by the mid-to-late 2025 period, the efficiency of capital inflows into thematic projects has noticeably decreased, and the cycle of narrative transformation into price has lengthened and narrowed. Investors’ patience for theme speculation is waning, and the narrative of empty rotation is no longer sustainable. This means that in the second half of the year, structural opportunities in the market will be more concentrated on the path of “narrative validation supported by reality”: such as genuine user growth of AI protocols, continuous optimization of on-chain data for BTC, and circulating data for stablecoins like USDC exceeding expectations, which can truly drive the mid-term market.

From a tactical operational suggestion perspective, asset allocation should pay more attention to the “synergy of structure and rhythm.” Bitcoin remains the most certain mainline asset, with the logic of long-term holding unchanged. It is suitable to layout through ETF and cold wallet dual tracks, continuing to capture its valuation reassessment opportunity as “digital gold” during the interest rate reduction cycle. Ethereum possesses gaming elasticity, but caution is needed regarding the Alpha loss caused by the weakening of innovation in on-chain applications. It is recommended to focus on the combination of “liquidity + new narrative” in its ecosystem’s segmented areas, such as RWA derivative protocols, L2 chain stablecoin growth, etc. Solana, TON, and other “high-speed public chains” have certain valuation repair space, but participation positions and rhythm should be strictly controlled to cope with potential liquidity withdrawal volatility risks.

In addition, it is recommended to allocate a certain percentage of the portfolio to strategically capture the secondary rotation potential of Meme assets. Although the intensity of Meme narratives has significantly decreased, short-term sentiment trading opportunities based on the resonance of traffic and liquidity on platform X have not completely extinguished. For users familiar with on-chain fund flow monitoring, data such as SocialFi, cross-chain bridge traffic changes, and whale address movements can be combined to conduct lightweight trading operations on an intraday or weekly level. On this basis, strengthen the risk management mechanism to ensure that the Meme allocation does not exceed 10% of the total market value of the portfolio.

Finally, from the perspective of institutional and strategic research, the second half of 2025 is more suitable for building a “defensive bull market framework” rather than aggressive bull market expectations. Although the market has upward momentum, its external variables are too complex, and any external policy, war shock, or regulatory reversal may form a reverse squeeze on the market direction. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on the following three indicators as the “leading signal” for the phased turn of the crypto market: one is the change in the Fed’s policy path and dot plot, whether to release the expectation of continuous interest rate cuts; The second is whether the ETF capital flow will be re-amplified, especially whether the average daily net inflow will return to more than $500 million; The third is whether the on-chain circulation and activity of stablecoins (especially USDC and USDe) can maintain the monthly growth trend and break through the 2024 high. Once the three form a resonance, it constitutes a confirmation signal that the market is jumping to the “trend repricing stage”, and the upward slope of the subsequent market is expected to increase significantly.

In the second half of 2025, the cryptocurrency market will enter a mid-term recovery phase characterized by a “structural sedimentation shifting towards policy-driven” approach. Although market trends are not absolutely unilateral, under the combined forces of macro warming, on-chain optimization, and capital rotation recovery, the cryptocurrency market has the strategic foundation to achieve a “slow bull breakthrough in range fluctuations.” The key lies in whether investors can understand the rhythm of macro changes and anchor the trends of on-chain data, thereby constructing a long-term strategic layout with a high winning rate amidst volatility and tug-of-war.

6. Conclusion

In 2025, the cryptocurrency market will enter a new cycle dominated by institutional games and guided by liquidity reconstruction. We recommend that investors adopt the core strategy of “seeking structural opportunities within defense,” seizing the new Alpha paths brought about by the reconstruction of U.S. monetary tools and the recovery of the U.S.-China capital arbitrage chain. Patience will be the strongest strategy this year, and understanding the system is the true skill to navigate through cycles.