Bitcoin that has not moved for over 10 years reaches an all-time high, with changes in supply and demand structure supporting future rise = report

## Foundation for further price rise

According to a report released by Fidelity Digital Assets on the 18th, a historic shift in the supply structure of Bitcoin (BTC) is occurring after the halving in 2024. The “ancient supply” that has not moved for over 10 years has exceeded the newly issued amount of 450 BTC for the first time, averaging 566 BTC per day.

The ratio of ancient supply is on the rise daily, with the number of decreasing days remaining below 3%. Although the number of decreasing days rises to 13% at the threshold for holders of more than 5 years, the strong conviction of long-term holders is impacting the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem.

Since Satoshi Nakamoto became the first 10-year holder on January 1, 2019, approximately 3.4 million BTC have been added to the ancient supply. Calculated at the price of $107,000 as of June 9, this amounts to a value of over $360 billion, accounting for more than 17% of the circulating supply.

The phenomenon where the ancient supply exceeds new issuance will begin in April 2024 and may have a growing impact on prices in the coming years. However, under certain market conditions, it has been found that even the most confident holders may take selling actions.

After the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the daily reduction rate of ancient supply has reached nearly 4 times the historical average of 10% since 2019. The supply of holders who have held for more than 5 years has also decreased by 39% in terms of days, increasing threefold from the usual 13%.

The movements of these long-term holders may have contributed to the sideways or declining market in the first quarter of 2025. An increase in ancient supply does not necessarily lead to a rise in prices, and in the short term, an increase in supply movement may even have a counterproductive effect.

Fidelity predicts that the ancient supply will reach 20% of the circulating supply in 2028 and 25% in 2034. Including 27 listed companies that hold over 1,000 BTC, there is a possibility of reaching 30% by 2035, with an expected expansion of the impact on long-term supply trends.

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