According to a report by The Wall Street Journal on June 17, 2025, there are channels conveying the views of The Federal Reserve (FED) indicating that, given the recent positive performance of inflation data, the FED might have been prepared to cut interest rates at this week's meeting, but the price risks brought about by tariff policies have become a hindrance. It is expected that the FED meeting on June 19 will continue to maintain a wait-and-see stance.

The key mechanism by which tariff policies affect inflation lies in interfering with the formation of "inflation expectations." Although inflation data in the United States has been stable over the past three months, the tariff policies announced since March of this year have raised concerns among decision-makers that this may change market participants' judgments about future inflation trends. Inflation expectations play a decisive role in the formation of actual inflation—when retailers, landlords, or workers anticipate rising future costs, they often take defensive measures such as preemptively raising prices or requesting higher wages, thereby actually pushing prices upward.

Market analysts generally predict that the Fed will keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5% at this meeting. The path and magnitude of future rate cuts will largely depend on how policymakers assess the risk of uncertainty in inflation expectations.