Trump Dinner Invitation: Genuine Hospitality or Market Manipulation?

TRUMP’S “TRUMP DINNER” WILL BE HELD IN WASHINGTON ON MAY 22. The event plans to invite the top 220 TRUMP token holders to attend, with the top 25 holders having the opportunity to attend a private VIP reception with Trump and visit the White House the following day. It is reported that Trump will attend the dinner as a guest, and the event will not involve fundraising.

!7365228

This news inevitably reminds one of the recent token unlocking event: on April 18, TRUMP unlocked 40 million tokens, worth about $300 million, accounting for 20% of the circulating supply. The timing of these events raises the question: is this a “thanksgiving feast” for investors, or is there another agenda behind it, a “Huangmen Banquet”?

After the announcement of the banquet news, the price of TRUMP rose rapidly, reaching a high of $14.37. As of the time of this report, the TRUMP quote is $12.37, an increase of over 33%.

!7365229

The Whale Action Draws Attention

Market monitoring data shows that after the announcement of the dinner news, an investor spent 5 million USDC to purchase 407,467 TRUMP tokens at a price of $12.27. Even more surprising, this investor sold all holdings in less than 30 minutes, netting a profit of $731,800.

!7365232

Another long-term TRUMP liquidity provider withdrew liquidity from two wallets that morning, obtaining 211,977 TRUMP (approximately $2.76 million) and 18,376 SOL (approximately $2.76 million). Both wallets are currently among the top 220 holders, giving them the opportunity to receive an invitation to the dinner. This person purchased 332,424 TRUMP (approximately $802,000) at a price of $2.41 on the day the token was listed and provided liquidity. At the peak price, these tokens were worth over $24 million.

!7365230

However, not all investors are so lucky. On-chain analysis shows that a TRUMP token investor liquidated their position about 20 hours before the positive news was announced, making only $483,000 in profit. If they had held until after the news was released, their theoretical profit could have reached up to $4.28 million.

!7365246

The future of the TRUMP token is in doubt

In terms of long-term performance, the TRUMP token has been disappointing. It soared to over $75 on its first day of trading, but investors quickly noticed the token’s high concentration and short exercise period, leading to a rapid decline in its rise. After its launch on January 17, the token’s market cap once reached about $15 billion, but by January 20, it had plummeted by over 50%. Considering that 80% of the supply was allocated to founders and entities controlled by Trump, its current market cap of $2.6 billion seems unreasonable.

!7223869

Although Trump’s event planning has boosted trading volume in the short term, it is difficult to fundamentally change the long-term trend of the token with just one dinner. The current price increase is mainly due to a combination of market speculation and Trump’s personal influence. In the long run, unless concerns over token unlocking can be alleviated, the TRUMP token is unlikely to reverse the long-term weak market performance.

!7365247

Trump’s NFT Layout

According to the official terms, Trump may be absent from the dinner. If the event is canceled or Trump fails to attend, eligible token holders will receive a limited edition NFT as compensation. This arrangement indicates that Trump is not only concerned about the TRUMP token but is also continuing to promote his NFT project.

!7365240

In fact, Trump has long been involved in the NFT space. On May 8, 2024, he hosted an NFT dinner at his resort in Palm Beach, Florida, inviting buyers who purchased at least 47 “MugShot Edition” NFTs to attend. The series consists of 100,000 NFTs, with a price of $99 each, and purchasing 47 (for $4,653) gives the opportunity to dine with Trump. At that time, Trump expressed his support for cryptocurrency and promised to change the United States’ hostile stance towards digital currencies.

!7365241

Trump’s earliest NFT projects date back to December 2022, when 45,000 cards were issued showing him as a superhero, astronaut, and more. The NFTs are based on the Polygon blockchain and are priced at $99 each in the standard version. Customers who purchase 45 cards will receive tickets to the NFT dinner. At that time, all NFTs were sold out in about 12 hours. In March 2023, when Trump was indicted, the price of his NFTs soared, reaching a maximum of nearly $1,700.

In April 2023, the Trump team launched the second batch of digital trading cards, maintaining a price of $99 each, which sold out in 5 hours, generating $4.6 million in revenue.

!7365242

Conclusion

Trump seems to be pushing for both the TRUMP token and the NFT project. Whether or not these digital assets can maintain their value consistently, short-term price volatility and media attention have generated considerable gains and exposure for him. This strategy demonstrates Trump’s ability to translate personal influence into the value of cryptoassets, but for investors, the heat needs to be more dispassionate about assessing the associated risks.