Bitcoin adjusts due to Middle East risks, buyback forecast after FOMC｜Contribution from bitbank analyst

2025-06-15 02:36:28

## This week’s weekly report

Analyst Hasegawa from the major domestic exchange bitbank illustrates this week’s cryptocurrency (virtual currency) Bitcoin chart and interprets future prospects.

Table of Contents

Bitcoin On-Chain Data
Contribution by bitbank

Bitcoin On-Chain Data

BTC transactions

BTC Transactions (Monthly)

Active Address Count

Active Address Count (Monthly)

BTC mining pool withdrawal address

Exchange and Other Services

bitbank Analyst Analysis (Contribution: Tomoya Hasegawa)

Weekly Report for This Week:

This week, the Bitcoin (BTC) to yen exchange rate fluctuated up and down before turning downwards, and as of noon on the 13th, it is trading around 14.9 million yen.

Last week, Circle (CRCL) surged in after-hours trading on the NYSE, which led BTC to rise from 15.25 million yen to the 15.50 million yen range. During U.S. hours, SEC Chair Gary Gensler made statements supporting the easing of DeFi regulations and self-custody of crypto assets, causing the market to rise further.

On the other hand, the BTC market in USD touched $110,000 and then lost momentum, shifting to a high price consolidation from the 10th.

On the 11th, after the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May was announced early in the U.S. time and fell short of market expectations, BTC briefly touched 16 million yen. However, when the U.S. federal government announced the evacuation of some personnel from the Middle East due to escalating tensions in the region, the risk-off mood intensified, and BTC turned to decline.

The risk-averse movement continued, and by the European time on the 12th, it had almost completely given back the gains made at the beginning of the week. During the US time, despite recovering to 15.6 million yen due to lower inflation indicators, the possibility of Israel attacking Iran emerged, leading to a decline back to 15.2 million yen.

Furthermore, on the 13th, following reports that Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities in the early hours of Tokyo time, the market has fallen below 15 million yen.

【Figure 1: BTC to JPY Chart (1 Hour)】 Source: Created from bitbank.cc

The BTC market softened due to geopolitical risks, but in recent years, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the Israel-Gaza conflict in 2023, BTC was sold off in the wake of global risk aversion immediately after the outbreak of fighting. However, after the sell-off, there tended to be a rebound with buybacks.

In the short term, there are indications that it may drop to around $101,400 (approximately ¥14.56 million), but it is unlikely to provide enough material to reverse the medium to long-term upward trend in the market.

On the other hand, this week, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for May were released, showing a slight acceleration year-on-year, but both fell short of market expectations. Additionally, as concerns over the impact of Trump tariffs continue, the month-on-month growth for both indices has slowed, leading to a downward revision of interest rate forecasts in the FF futures market.

It is still expected that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will maintain the policy interest rate and express cautious opinions about the future of the economy next week, but if there are no new developments, it is reasonable to anticipate that BTC will pass through the event without issues and that there may be buybacks.

In addition, the second half of June is just around the corner, and if the FOMC passes, the market’s attention may shift to the “Trump tax cuts” bill. U.S. Senate Republicans are aiming to pass the bill by July 4, the U.S. Independence Day, and if it gets close to passing, it will see a return of dollar-denominated money into BTC on fears of growing U.S. federal debt.

I expect BTC to continue consolidating at high prices, but I see it as a preparation period for a breakout to the upside.

! Contributor: Yuya Hasegawa After graduating from graduate school in the UK, he worked as an analyst in the FinTech industry and the virtual currency market at a venture company consisting of people with a background in financial institutions. Since 2019, he has been a market analyst at Bitbank Corporation. He has provided commentary to major domestic financial media and has contributed many articles to overseas media. List of Past Reports

BTC3,32%

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