Recently, my live streaming frequency has dropped. On one hand, it's because the current market situation is relatively simple, with not many points worth discussing in depth; on the other hand, the continuous rainy weather has affected my mood.

In fact, the current market environment is not complicated, but many traders perform poorly in short-term trading. Observing these individuals, I found that they generally have a common issue: excessive focus on the short-term direction of the market.

For example, when the price of Bitcoin fluctuates around the 110 area, are you stuck in a long and short choice? Will it continue to rise or will it peak and fall? Various analyses seem to make sense. The root of the problem is that most people believe that the premise of trading is to determine the direction before entering the market.

However, practical experience has taught me that in addition to the need to clarify the general trend in long-term investment, direction judgment is not the primary factor in short-term trading. I have always believed that the tops and bottoms of the market are based on testing, not guesswork. When the price is close to an important resistance or support level, the reasonable strategy is not to enter the market immediately, but to use a very small position to test the market reaction and perceive the real trend through actual participation.

This is a question where practice precedes theory. Testing with small positions is always more effective than purely theoretical analysis. You need to get involved first to truly understand the situation and ultimately gain control over the whole.

For example, when you are faced with a paper loss, you tend to comfort yourself that the market will pull back and continue to hold your position. However, this psychology does not originate from market signals, but from the psychological discomfort caused by floating losses and the instinct to refuse to admit mistakes. At this point, your judgment is dominated by emotions. And if you're using a very small position, rational thinking can get the upper hand, and it's much easier to admit mistakes and stop losses in time. A person's judgment of the pattern in a profitable state is usually more objective and clear.

Therefore, the true advantage of those who excel at short-term trading lies not in the accuracy of directional judgment, but in their ability to adjust their mindset, control risks, and manage positions. Successful traders are not necessarily those with high prediction accuracy, but rather those who can recover all losses in the 10th trade through reasonable risk management, even after making incorrect judgments 9 times.