Who is secretly increasing the position? The triangular game of Whales, gold, and Bitcoin.
The “Whale” that frequently appears in on-chain dynamics has taken new action - just as Bitcoin soared to $110,000, he made a bold bet to go long with 10 million USDC, using 20x leverage, and his unrealized gains instantly skyrocketed to $5.87 million! Now his Position has risen to $250 million.
This is not just a big bet, but rather a precise interpretation of the macro trend. From gold to US stocks, from risk aversion to high-risk appetite, he seems to be “hitting everything.” Today, I would like to dissect the logic behind this Whale operation from two dimensions: “macro perspective + technical perspective,” and also try to answer a question: Is Bitcoin really about to hit a historical high?
This time the Whale is betting not just on Bitcoin.
What risk aversion signals has the rise in gold released?
Gold is a traditional safe-haven asset. Whenever market uncertainties about the future increase, the dollar weakens, or geopolitical risks escalate, gold tends to strengthen first. Now, as we enter June, the macro situation has once again brought gold’s safe-haven attributes into the spotlight.
Inflationary pressures are still accumulating: the aftereffects of the Federal Reserve’s easing policy in 2024 are beginning to show, and the market is generally worried about a rebound in inflation;
Weakness in the US dollar index: If the DXY falls below the key support level of 100, funds will naturally flow to non-dollar assets;
Geopolitical instability: conflicts in the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine situation, and tensions in Asia—could all serve as catalysts for a stronger gold.
In this environment, Bitcoin’s role as “digital gold” is emphasized once again. Glassnode data shows that between 2023 and 2024, the correlation between BTC and gold remains between 0.4 and 0.6.
Therefore, this whale may not simply be holding BTC, but rather a combination logic of “risk aversion + new assets”—gold as a traditional safe-haven tool is already moving, and Bitcoin, as “digital gold,” is expected to absorb the overflow of funds from this sentiment, making the upward trend a natural outcome.
“For traders, it might be worth paying more attention to the fund flows of the GLD ETF and the net positions of COMEX gold futures, as the movements of these old assets may help you sniff out the trend of Bitcoin in advance.”
The S&P 500 is up, does it represent a return of risk appetite?
Of course, the market is not only worried about risks, sometimes it can also become “greedy.”
If you pay attention to the trend of the S&P 500, you will find: the S&P 500 is currently in a rebound recovery phase. Since hitting the bottom in April, the index has risen from around 4800 points to the 6000 point level. Although it is still some distance from the previous high of 6147 points, it has already released an important signal: risk appetite is recovering.
At the same time, historical data shows that the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 increases during bull markets—after all, many institutions view Bitcoin as a “tech asset.” This may be one of the logic judgments of Whales: “If the US stock market is still rising, and the market is willing to take on more risk, then Bitcoin will not be absent.”
Macroeconomic data + institutional trends, building a bullish consensus?
In addition to hedging and risk preference, there are some hardcore “data-driven logics”. This data provides foundational support for the aggressive strategies of the Whales: they are not fighting alone, but are aligned with the direction of the capital flow.
- Inflation & Interest Rate Policy
If the annualized CPI in June breaks 5% (expected to be announced in mid-July, you can pay attention to the AiCoin event calendar), market confidence in the US dollar will be shaken, and more funds will flow into crypto assets. Whether the Federal Reserve adopts a dovish stance will also directly affect the short-term trend of BTC.
- Institutional Fund Flow
Taking BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) as an example, it surpassed $70 billion in assets under management in just 341 trading days. CoinShares data shows that institutional inflows into crypto ETFs exceeded $20 billion in 2024 and are still accelerating in 2025.
From the K-line and technical indicators: Can Bitcoin break through $120,000?
After discussing the macro view, let’s take a look at the market. Currently, Bitcoin is around 109,000 USD, close to the Whale’s opening price of 107,637 USD. How should we assess the technical trend for the next 1-2 weeks?
From the daily perspective, the current price of Bitcoin is approaching the upper resistance level of $112,000, while the support below has risen to the range of $108,000 to $109,000. The gradually converging trend pattern may indicate that a typical ascending triangle structure is taking shape. If it can break through $112,000 with increased volume, the trend is expected to continue upward.
At the same time, the technical indicators also show alignment with the bullish direction:
Moving Average System (MA): Currently, the short-term moving averages (MA10, MA20) are in a bullish arrangement, reflecting that the market’s short-term momentum remains strong; at the same time, the price has broken through the 50-day moving average, strengthening the medium-term bullish structure; the 50-day moving average has crossed above the 200-day moving average, forming a typical “golden cross,” further confirming the medium-term bullish pattern; overall, the moving average system is gradually shifting to a bullish arrangement, and the trend is expected to continue.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): Recently, the daily RSI has risen to around 60, indicating strong bullish momentum but not yet overbought; if it continues to break above 70 accompanied by increased volume, it is expected to further challenge the target of $120,000 and higher.
Bollinger Bands: The recent price is running close to the upper band, and there are signs of expansion in the band, indicating the possibility of a continuation of the upward trend.
Volume: The effectiveness of a breakout depends on the accompanying volume. If the price breaks above $112,000 but lacks strong volume support, be cautious of the risk of a false breakout.
In fact, everyone should have noticed that every time we look at charts, draw lines, and set indicators, the core revolves around a few classic tools: moving averages, RSI, Bollinger Bands, trading volume… These indicators themselves are not mysterious; the real key is whether they can validate your judgment of the market logic.
For example, when you feel “macro bullish”, is the technical aspect also strengthening in sync? Or is it just an “illusion” during a rebound? In other words, technical analysis is a link that confirms your logical chain.
Therefore, when we see a rise in risk aversion and a shift in institutional sentiment, if the technical indicators show a simultaneous increase in volume and price, along with a confirmed trend, then you have more certainty to bet on the market; however, if the technical patterns are slow to provide signals, you should be cautious as it might be another “false breakout” coming.
Summary: Don’t just focus on where the “Whales” are swimming, you also need to understand the water temperature.
This whale operation is not just an “aggressive long position”; it resembles a model of a keen macro judgment combined with high leverage tactics. For us ordinary traders, we may not be able to replicate such a level of operation, but we can learn three points from it:
Trends are never determined by a single market; macro clues are becoming increasingly important.
Price trend = sentiment + structure + funds + technology, resonance is the key;
Doing good risk control is always the starting point of trading - even Whales set liquidation prices, what about your stop loss?