Is there a "top escaping" signal after Bitcoin's new high? Long-term holders are taking profits, and the market is entering the allocation game phase.

Author: Glassnode

Compiled by: Felix, PANews

Bitcoin began to pull back after hitting a new high of $111,800 as long-term holders began to take profits. With key support at $103,700 and $95,600 and signs of a sell-off by long-term investors, bulls are now facing a tough test.

Key Points:

• Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $111,800 but quickly fell back to $103,200. The initial rally appears to have been driven by the spot market, with the main pocket-absorbing areas of $81,000 to $85,000, $93,000 to $96,000, and $102,000 to $104,000 now serving as potential support levels.
• From a more macro perspective, the CBD heatmap shows that many historical accumulation areas have transformed into selling areas. Sellers from the ranges of $25,000 to $31,000, $38,000 to $44,000, and $60,000 to $73,000 are exerting pressure on price trends.
• The cost basis percentiles and short-term holder range indicate that recent support levels are around $103,700 and $95,600, while resistance is at $114,800. These levels are significant statistical indicators of broader market sentiment shifts.
• Realized profits surged to $1.47 billion per day, marking the fifth large-scale profit-taking in this cycle. The sell-off was primarily led by long-term holders rather than short-term traders.
• Groups with positions held for over 1 year have dominated recent selling, reflecting mature capital rotation. This aligns with previous observations from the CBD heatmap, confirming that seasoned investors are shaping the current top formation phase.

Rising Trend Ladder Chart

In the past two weeks, Bitcoin continued its upward trend, reaching a new high of $111,800, briefly surpassing the previous high set in January 2025. However, it then retraced to $103,200, indicating that the bullish momentum may be pausing.

To understand the underlying structure of this rebound, one can refer to the CBD heatmap (PANews note: the CBD heatmap displays Cumulative Volume Delta data in a heatmap format), which tracks the net difference between aggressive buying and selling at different price levels. Visually, it can reveal concentrated accumulation or selling areas driven by spot trading, helping to determine the price ranges with the strongest demand.

From the heatmap, this rebound is mainly driven by spot trading and is showing a step-like increase, with significant accumulation zones in the ranges of $81,000 to $85,000, $93,000 to $96,000, and $102,000 to $104,000. These areas could now potentially become supply-dense zones and may provide short-term support under the influence of overall market sentiment.

It is worth noting that the top buyers in the first quarter of this year have continued to hold after the price fell below $80,000, and now as the price hovers around $110,000, they are facing a test again. This article will explore the gradually weakening momentum behind recent demand, the factors that are weakening market power, and where potential support levels may emerge if the market continues to weaken.

Source: Glassnode

Long-term Holder Selling Pressure

To understand the driving forces behind Bitcoin’s recent breakthrough of $111,000, it is necessary to examine it from a broader market structure perspective. By looking at the heatmap since the cycle bottom in June 2022, the distribution pattern of accumulated positions over the past period has begun to become clear.

As prices continue to rise, the previously accumulation zone characterized by supply density (typically marked by horizontal consolidation) has now transformed into an active sell-off zone. Visually, the heatmap shows a gradual transition; the areas that once supported the upward trend have now become resistance levels as early holders seize the opportunity to sell.

The most significant selling pressure comes from groups that have accumulated positions in key historical ranges (from $25,000 to $31,000 and from $60,000 to $73,000). Many of these groups have experienced multiple stages of volatility, and are now exacerbating the oversupply, which seems to at least limit Bitcoin’s further rise in the short term.

Source: Glassnode

Exploration of Price Discovery

As long-term holders gradually exert selling pressure, the possibility of a pullback in the short term continues to increase, especially in the absence of strong catalysts to drive Bitcoin firmly above $111,800. During this stagnation of bullish momentum, on-chain pricing models become an important tool for identifying potential support levels during the pullback.

A particularly effective framework is the Spent Supply Distribution (SSD) quantile. This metric analyzes the cost basis of tokens at a specific time, dividing it into 100 percentiles. It provides a high-resolution view of the supply as it initially enters the market, allowing for the identification of areas with higher turnover rates, which may be driven by profit-taking or loss realization.

The focus here is on three key quantiles:

• 🔴 0.95 (front 5%)
• 🔵 0.85 (first 15%)
• 🟠 0.75 (Top 25%)

The historical patterns of the past five years indicate that when prices are above the 0.95 quantile, there is often absolute euphoria, while a sideways bull market phase typically occurs between 0.85 and 0.95. On the other hand, consistently staying below 0.75 usually signifies a bear market or a risk-off period.

Currently, the 0.95 percentile is around $103,700, which is the first on-chain support level. If selling pressure persists, the next level to watch is the 0.85 percentile, at $95,600, which may provide structural support, or if this level is breached, it would confirm a broader risk reset.

Source: Glassnode

In the past six months, driven by two historical highs, the Bitcoin supply has significantly changed hands, making it increasingly important to track recent investor behavior. One of the most insightful models is the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis, which reflects the average purchase price of Bitcoin held for less than 155 days.

To improve the statistics, the “standard deviation bands” were applied based on this cost to define key support and resistance areas. These standard deviation channels help quantify the range of market consensus among short-term participants and may indicate trend exhaustion or breakout thresholds.

Currently, the cost basis for STH is $97,100, representing the average buying price of recent buyers. +1 is typically associated with overbought or bullish breakout conditions, with its position at $114,800, while the position of -1 is at $83,200, indicating an increase in downside risk.

These three levels ($114,800, $97,100, and $83,200) now define the statistical boundaries of short-term market sentiment. Breaking above or below these thresholds is likely to determine the next phase of the market, indicating whether the momentum is strengthening or weakening.

Source: Glassnode

Profit Realization

As Bitcoin pulls back from its recent high of $111,800, most of the selling pressure seems to come from seasoned holders during the cycle, namely those who accumulated Bitcoin early in the uptrend and are now realizing substantial profits. In this phase, the profit realization mechanism is a key factor in assessing the risk of demand exhaustion.

By calculating the 7-day simple moving average of daily realized profits (adjusted to exclude internal flows within entities), last week saw daily realized profits reaching a peak of $1.47 billion. This is a significant level that highlights the intensity of recent capital rotation.

More importantly, this marks the fifth time in this cycle that the daily profit-taking scale has exceeded 1 billion dollars. Such events often coincide with local market tops or slowdowns, especially when new demand cannot absorb such a large scale of realized gains. This highlights the market’s resilience in the face of significant selling pressure.

Source: Glassnode

Dynamic Transition

In order to better understand the significance of the current wave of profit-taking, it is necessary to examine it from a cyclical perspective. Not all profit-taking events are the same; the dynamic characteristics of these mechanisms can reveal how market maturity and volatility shape investor behavior over time.

An effective method is to examine the 90-day simple moving average (SMA) of the realized net profit adjusted for market capitalization. This adjustment allows for comparisons over different weeks. A clear trend is that, over time, the enthusiasm for taking profits has weakened, reflecting a general degradation of periodic upward performance and a decrease in volatility as the market matures.

• From November 2015 to April 2018, the net profit realization phase lasted for about 25 months, peaking at over 0.4% of the market value.
• During the period from 2020 to 2022, this area lasted for about 20 months, but the peak was only around 0.15%.
• In the current cycle, which began in November 2023, the net profit realization phase has lasted for 18 months, forming two noticeable peaks close to 0.1%.

This trend indicates that although profit-taking is still exerting significant pressure, it has begun to ease, which may signal a shift from the frenzy of boom and bust to structural capital rotation within more mature asset classes.

Source: Glassnode

Who is profiting?

Another perspective on assessing profit-taking cycles is to identify which groups of investors are selling.

Since the cycle from 2015 to 2018, at the peak of market euphoria, the share of profits realized by long-term holders (LTHs) has steadily increased. This trend highlights a structural shift in market maturity, where more experienced investors are dominating capital rotation, rather than speculative traders who enter and exit quickly.

During the recent peak period, the 30-day moving average realized profits of long-term holders (LTHs) surged to about $1 billion per day, while short-term holders (STHs) realized only $320 million per day, with a gap of more than 3 times between the two, further confirming that this round of profit-taking is dominated by investors with longer holding periods and stronger convictions.

Source: Glassnode

At first glance, the approximately 1 billion dollars of realized profit per day from current long-term holders (holding time over 6 months) seems modest compared to the 1.8 billion dollars during the peak period in December 2024. However, a deeper analysis reveals a familiar pattern.

In past bull markets, as the cycle progressed, the group of investors holding for 6 to 12 months often contributed less to profit-taking. This dynamic is once again evident in the current cycle. With the ongoing rise, an increasing number of seasoned investors among long-term holders are beginning to emerge as the main sellers, which seems to be shaping the top formation phase of this cycle.

Source: Glassnode

Therefore, by excluding the holding groups of 6 to 12 months from the total realized profits of long-term holders, it is possible to more accurately assess the true impact of experienced investors on current market dynamics. This adjustment eliminates the influence of high-position buyers in the first quarter of 2025, whose unrealized gains are relatively limited, and focuses on investors who have held for over a year and have higher profit margins.

When the profits realized by investors holding for more than 1 year are isolated, the importance of the current market trend becomes even more apparent. This group is typically associated with steadfast investors, and they are currently taking profits on a large scale, which usually indicates that the bull market trend has matured or is about to end.

This observation is consistent with earlier findings from the heat map, which also indicated that recent selling pressure mainly came from seasoned investors, further confirming the notion that long-term holders are becoming increasingly active during this top formation phase.

Source: Glassnode

Conclusion

Bitcoin recently surged to a historic high of $111,800, but resistance is also increasing. Market data shows that early buyers are showing signs of fatigue, and long-term holders are cashing out their profits. Heatmaps indicate that several previously strong accumulation zones have turned into active sell zones, especially for investors who bought in the $25,000 to $73,000 range.

On-chain pricing models, such as cost-based percentiles and short-term holder statistical intervals, now define the immediate structure of the market. If demand weakens, the key support levels of $103,700 and $95,600 will be crucial, while the upward resistance range of $114,800 remains a test for the market’s revival.

The profit realization mechanism is also showing an increasingly intense trend, with daily profit peaks reaching 1.47 billion USD, mainly driven by long-term holders. This trend, along with the rising proportion of profit-taking among those holding for over a year, indicates that what we may be witnessing is a distribution phase rather than a new round of breakthroughs.

Overall, the market seems to be at a crossroads, influenced by increased selling pressure, a gradual decline in bullish momentum, and the necessity for demand to prove its resilience. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether this is a mid-term consolidation or the beginning of a more extensive top formation.

Related Reading: On-chain Data Weekly Review: Bitcoin Hits a New High for the Third Time in This Cycle, More Upside Potential Remains