Wu's Daily Selected Encryption News + This Week's Macroeconomic Indicators

1. Arthur Hayes: The alt season is coming and we need to wait for Bitcoin to break through 110,000 USD.

Arthur Hayes stated that the arrival of alt season needs to wait for Bitcoin to break through 110,000 USD and continue to rise in volume to the range of 150,000 - 200,000 USD, expecting this situation to occur in the summer or early third quarter of this year, after which funds will begin to rotate into various altcoins; gold accounts for about 20% of his personal investment portfolio; in the bull market over the next 18-24 months, ETH’s increase may surpass SOL; before the end of Trump’s term, that is, by the end of 2028, Bitcoin will reach 1,000,000 USD; by the end of this year, Bitcoin’s target price is approximately 250,000 USD.

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2. This week’s large token unlocks

In the next 7 days, there will be large single unlocks (unlock amount greater than 5 million USD) such as PYTH, ALT, and VENOM. There will also be linear large unlocks (daily unlock amount greater than 1 million USD) in SOL, WLD, TIA, DOGE, TAO, AVAX, SUI, DOT, IP, MORPHO, NEAR, ETHFI, JTO, and FIL, with a total unlock value exceeding 618 million USD.

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3. Strategy increased its holdings by 7,390 Bitcoins from May 12 to 18.

Strategy increased its holdings by 7,390 Bitcoins from May 12 to May 18, with an average price of $103,498, totaling approximately $764.9 million. As of May 18, Strategy’s total Bitcoin holdings rose to 576,230 coins, with a cumulative purchase amount of approximately $40.18 billion and an average holding cost of $69,726.

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4. The BIP-177 proposal suggests naming the basic unit of Bitcoin as “Bitcoin”

Recently, the Bitcoin community has drawn attention with the proposal of BIP-177, which suggests redefining the base unit as 1 Bitcoin, abandoning the terms “satoshi” or “sat”. The currency code BTC remains unchanged, meaning 1 BTC = 100,000,000 base units = 100,000,000 Bitcoin. The proposal argues that the long-term benefits will help reduce confusion and lead to a more accurate understanding of Bitcoin’s fundamental design. Jack Dorsey expressed his support for “BIP-177” in a tweet.

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5. Vitalik proposed an Ethereum native node-friendly scaling solution

Vitalik Buterin suggested that Ethereum L1 scaling should take into account the operability of personal nodes. In the short term, EIP-4444 should be advanced to allow nodes to retain only about 36 days of historical data, build a distributed historical storage system, and adjust the Gas mechanism to increase storage costs and reduce execution costs. The medium-term goal is to achieve stateless validation, further reducing storage requirements. In the long term, “partial stateless nodes” will be introduced, where nodes only maintain a portion of state data configured by users, ensuring that under the background of an increase in L1 Gas limits, users can still locally access important states, protecting privacy and resisting censorship.

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6. Wu’s Macro Indicators and Analysis for This Week: Federal Reserve Officials’ Speeches, European Central Bank Meeting Minutes

Abstract

Last week, the U.S. inflation data CPI & PPI were both below expectations; this week, attention can be focused on speeches from Federal Reserve officials, the European Central Bank’s April monetary policy meeting minutes, and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision.

Last week’s review

The U.S. April non-seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year is 2.3%, a new low since February 2021, with market expectations at 2.4%.

The U.S. April PPI annual rate recorded 2.4%, falling for the third consecutive month, marking a new low since September of last year. The April PPI monthly rate recorded -0.5%, the lowest since April 2020, well below the market expectation of 0.2%.

The summary of the opinions of the members of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting in April shows that although they have become more cautious about the potential impact of U.S. tariffs, they have not given up on further interest rate hikes.

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending May 10 was 229,000, in line with expectations. The previous value was revised from 228,000 to 229,000.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered the opening remarks at the second Thomas Laubach Research Conference. Powell stated that the U.S. may be entering a period of more frequent and prolonged supply shocks, which pose a daunting challenge for the economy and the central bank.

The initial value of the one-year inflation rate expectation in the United States for May is 7.3%, expected to be 6.50%, and the previous value is 6.50%.

The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan in the United States for May is only 50.8, lower than the final value of 52.2 in April, marking a decline for the fifth consecutive month.

Key Events & Indicators This Week

May 19

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang attended the Taipei International Computer Show and delivered a speech, sharing the latest developments and breakthroughs in “AI and Accelerated Computing Technologies” (11:00)

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson delivers a speech (20:45)

May 20

The Reserve Bank of Australia announces interest rate decision (12:30)

May 21

On 2025, FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy (01:00)

May 22

The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending May 17 was ( million ) (20:30)

The European Central Bank will publish the minutes of the monetary policy meeting for April (19:30)