XRP ETF approval probability exceeds 83%: a dual resonance of regulatory easing and market expectations.

As of May 19, 2025, the market’s expectations for the approval of the XRP spot ETF continue to heat up. According to data from the prediction platform Polymarket, the probability of the XRP ETF being approved by the end of 2025 has risen to 83%, while Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas has further raised this probability to 85%. Behind this optimistic sentiment are significant changes in the regulatory environment, accelerated institutional investments, and potential breakthroughs in Ripple’s legal disputes.

Regulatory Easing: From Legal Games to Policy Shift

The approval process for the XRP ETF is deeply intertwined with the long-term legal dispute between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). After Ripple’s partial victory in 2023, the SEC’s legal classification of XRP gradually shifted from “security” to “commodity,” a key change that was further confirmed in March 2025. An internal SEC report indicated that XRP could be classified as a commodity on par with Bitcoin and Ethereum, thus clearing the core obstacles for ETF approval.

At the same time, the leadership changes at the SEC have become another catalyst. The appointment of the new SEC Chairman, Paul Atkins, marks a shift in the regulatory agency’s attitude towards cryptocurrencies from “defensive scrutiny” to “strategic acceptance.” This policy shift is directly reflected in the SEC’s recent withdrawal of charges against platforms like Uniswap and the accelerated processing of cryptocurrency ETF applications.

Market Dynamics: Institutional Layout and Capital Inflow Expectations

Since the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF in 2024, there has been a surge in institutional demand for the allocation of crypto assets. As of May 2025, nine institutions, including Grayscale, 21Shares, and VanEck, have submitted applications for XRP spot ETFs, with Franklin Templeton’s application review date set for June 17, which is viewed as a key indicator.

Market expectations for capital inflows are equally strong. JPMorgan predicts that if the XRP ETF is approved, it could attract institutional funds ranging from $3 billion to $8 billion in its first year, pushing its market cap to hit the $200 billion milestone (currently at $140 billion). This expectation echoes the historical performance of Bitcoin ETFs—after the Bitcoin ETF launched in 2024, its price surged over 120% within six months.

It is worth noting that the preliminary testing of leveraged XRP ETFs has injected confidence into the market. In April 2025, Teucrium launched a 2x leveraged XRP ETF (XXRP) that saw its first-day trading volume exceed $5 million, making it one of the best-performing new ETFs in the U.S. derivatives market. Although the product focuses on short-term trading, its success has validated the market’s demand for XRP financial instruments.

Technical Aspects and Price Catalysts: The Key Resistance Breakthrough at 3 Dollars

From a technical analysis perspective, XRP’s current price is stable in the range of $2.30 - $2.40, the MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover, and the RSI remains around 60, indicating that the market has not yet entered the overbought zone. If it breaks through the short-term resistance level of $2.65, the price is expected to challenge the $3.00 round number and further approach the historical high of $3.84.

Key time nodes also become potential catalysts:

1. May 22, 2025: SEC closed-door meeting may involve discussions on settlement terms related to the Ripple case;
2. June 17, 2025: Final review deadline for Franklin XRP ETF.
3. October 18, 2025: Deadline for the SEC’s final ruling on multiple XRP ETF applications.

Risks and Uncertainties: Legal Variables and Market Fluctuations

Despite the optimistic outlook, XRP ETF still faces two major risks:

1. Legal variables: If the settlement between Ripple and the SEC is not reached as expected, or if the court ruling takes an unexpected turn, it may delay the ETF approval process;
2. Market Volatility: The high correlation of Bitcoin prices may amplify the volatility of XRP. When Bitcoin corrected by 25% at the beginning of 2025, XRP fell by 18% in tandem, highlighting its fragility.

Conclusion: The Tipping Point for Mainstreaming the Crypto Market

The potential approval of the XRP ETF is not only a turning point for the Ripple ecosystem but also a milestone for the integration of crypto assets into the traditional financial system. With the dismantling of regulatory barriers and the influx of institutional funds, XRP is expected to replicate the “ETF effect” of Bitcoin, initiating a new growth cycle amid enhanced liquidity and valuation reconstruction. As Bloomberg analysts have stated: “This is not just the approval of a product, but also a signal for the legitimization of the crypto market.”

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