On April 29, Melanie Baker, senior economist at Real Asset Management in London, said in a report that the Federal Reserve is still expected to cut interest rates twice in 2025, but no earlier than in the second half of the year, when the economy is expected to show clearer signs of slowdown. She noted that recession risks have risen and the outlook for global and U.S. economic growth has deteriorated. For now, though, she remains in the "slowdown" camp, not the "recession" camp, as reciprocal tariffs are suspended and there are signs that Trump is responding to market pressures.