"You wasted all that time and effort" - The Sunk Cost Fallacy

9/3/2025, 10:29:15 AM
Intermediate
Blockchain
The article not only shares the author’s personal growth and transformation but also provides an in-depth analysis of the psychological mechanism of the sunk cost fallacy and its impact on investment decisions.

Quick story time for you all. Almost a decade ago, I started medical school, at the time, I would think about what I wanted to do later. The first books I got were in the image above, borrowed from a library, and with our first weeks case starting with embryology and anatomy, the excitement was real. I would ponder about the vast space medicine offers, what life for me as a doctor would look like and me thinking about the choices I needed to make after graduating.

The beauty of a career in medicine is that there’s so much variety.

  • You can be hands on like a trauma surgeon

  • Technically focused through radiology diagnostics

  • Comms focused through family medicine or psychiatry

  • A mixture of everything through emergency or acute medicine

  • Dozens of other specialities, all of which have their own perspectives, qualities and pros/cons for you

Back then I initially wanted to be surgeon, thought being an Ophthalmologist would be cool. I think very quickly I learnt that anatomy just wasn’t for me, and even though I guess I’m good with hands on procedures, but don’t think I enjoyed spending time in theatre. I then wanted to go into Radiology, then GP (family med), even considered Gastroentrology for a bit. The point is, I only ever saw myself doing med and nothing else.

Capturing a nice sunset during a busy surgical shift after I graduated

I never thought I’d ever work in Finance, let alone Crypto/DeFi, but things change. I went through new experiences, met new people, explored new hobbies and somehow almost a decade here I am today. In fact, when I started medical school, I don’t think I had a clue what crypto was about. Reflecting back, it’s remarkable to see where I was back then to where I am today.

A few days ago, at an event, someone said to me, it’s a shame you wasted all that time and effort and left medicine. I’ve heard this a fair few times over the last few years as I’ve been cutting down my practice for crypto. I appreciate that at times it’s said to me from a position of safety and stability, however, they’re wrong. I think the word to describe it is human capital. Everything learnt, everything experienced, every skill developed, every fact memorised, is all part of what makes you today, you. For me this was a bunch from comms skills to critical thinking, memory skills, and the ability to actually treat an acute or chronic patient! That’s not gone!

The Sunk Cost Fallacy

The main point I want to get across to you all is not to fall for the sunk cost fallacy. In medicine I see it all the time, and perhaps some of you may have come across it before. Just because you’ve done something for a long time and put a bit of effort in, doesn’t mean you need to keep doing it for a lifetime.

The sunk cost fallacy is our tendencies to follow up with something, whether thats emotional, financial, educational or mental, even when another opportunity is available to you that’s better than what you’re doing already. Take the example of investing in a new shiny altcoin, at the time it was supposed to be the next big thing, you throw some money in but over the months you find it’s not moving so well, the rest of the market is doing better and the team is extremely delayed on their next product updates, yet despite this, you are a bag holder.

Why don’t we just sell and move on?

Been a bag holder? You may have experience this…

The sunk cost fallacy is the winner again as we make irrational decisions when factoring in what we should do vs what we’ve done already. We’re too focused on what we’ve put in already rather than the alternative opportunity (which in many cases was to just sell that altcoin for BTC). This happens because we’re not rational, we’re often over influenced by emotions. It’s also associated with commitment bias and loss aversion too, again something I think all of us in crypto or the world of investing have experienced before.

What can we learn from this?

In my case, when @ 0xBobdbldr reached out to me to join him and work on something totally different in DeFi, I was already working part time in crypto, although still practicing medicine at the time. I was at crossroads, should I go full time, should I not. For me DeFi is this once in a lifetime opportunity where you can be early, build something impactful, and importantly change your life and others forever. It was a case of focusing on future benefits and avoiding commitment bias that helped me over come it.

It’s totally okay to let go of things, somethings are irreversible and the costs associated may have been high, but the upside from the alternative can outweigh what it is you are doing. As mentioned above, this can be a job, it can be an upcoming event or even an investment you’ve made.

  • Accept and learn that you may have made a mistake, a bad choice or just that there can be a bright alternative light awaiting for you, it’s good to embrace change and to let go of irreversible costs.
  • Try to think rationally, not just emotionally about decisions, especially when it comes to investing
  • Focus on the future benefits, whether that’s upside from your new investment or the new career that awaits you, use data and metrics where you can

It’s why I like those who say, if you sold your bag today and had to buy it back tomorrow, would you? I think in many cases the answer might be no!

Disclaimer:

  1. This article is reprinted from [0xMughal]. All copyrights belong to the original author [0xMughal]. If there are objections to this reprint, please contact the Gate Learn team, and they will handle it promptly.
  2. Liability Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not constitute any investment advice.
  3. Translations of the article into other languages are done by the Gate Learn team. Unless mentioned, copying, distributing, or plagiarizing the translated articles is prohibited.

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