707Archmage

The new script has been updated, and there is no significant pullback space expected in the short term. On the 4H level, follow the lower boundary of the daily chart consolidation range from February 2025, with support levels at 94000-96000.

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#BTC# The target area from yesterday's live stream has arrived so quickly, the 99400-100800 range can build a position for a large short order, with a profit potential of 10,000 points.

#BTC# The gap position above on CME is 96455-97305, and the gap position below is 91970-92525. The current CME price has an approximate positive premium of 500 USD for BTC/USDT.
Currently, the market expects a 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged on May 8, and a 68% probability that rates will remain unchanged on June 19.

At present, the market capitalization ratio of BTC and ETH is highly differentiated, with the market share of BTC rising to 64%, the highest since 2022, and the proportion of ETH market capitalization falling from 22% at the end of 2021 to the current 7.2%, which also indicates that BTC's bloodsucking situation in cryptocurrencies has reached the extreme.

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Bang Xi is so nervous that he's biting his fingers, 88628 Liquidation, is it going to challenge the limit again tonight??? From tonight to tomorrow, follow the BTC 87800-88200 area, and follow the ETH 1820-1840 area, be cautious with shorting.

In terms of policy, given the objective conditions of the liquidity shortage of the US dollar caused by the tariff war, the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in May has temporarily increased to over 50%. BTC's key position today is 75800, with key resistance above at 78500. In terms of gaps, the CME futures gaps are 81400-84100 and 85200-85500. It is worth noting that due to the continuous decline of US stocks in recent days, the Nasdaq Composite Index is filled with gaps above, and the Nasdaq filling gaps has become a potential factor guiding BTC's daily chart large-s

After the release of the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP), the probability of a rate cut in May increased from 22% yesterday to 43%. Follow tonight's speech by Powell regarding the economic outlook. The CME futures gap has not yet been filled, with the corresponding Spot price in the range of 84800-85200.

The trade war of 2025 has arrived, and a policy has caused the Nasdaq to fall 3% in pre-market trading.

The market is like a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with prices fluctuating around 85000. A symmetrical triangle is forming in the short term, and the supply zone above 85000 and the demand zone below are gradually being consumed. We are waiting for the closing of the 4H and daily chart Bollinger bands, as a new unilateral trend is about to emerge. Key times to watch are the non-farm payroll and unemployment rate data on the evening of the 4th, as well as Powell's speech at 23:25 on the 4th. The current CME gap is located at 85200-85500, and the key positions remain at 86200 and 82600.

CME futures gapped down opening in the morning session on Monday, with the upper gap range at 82800-83900 and the lower gap range at 80400-80700. The market continues to experience downward movement, so follow the upper resistance levels of 84200 and around 86000.

The CME gap from last Monday has been filled, and the current accumulation zone is between 83600 and 84500, which is exactly the same as the position at the end of last week. For long positions to continue, they must remain above 84800 and not be broken again; for short positions to continue, they must break below the lower edge of the current accumulation zone, i.e., 83600. The position before the opening of the futures market on Monday is crucial.

If we follow a triangle here, we will face directional choices later on, with plenty of space both upwards and downwards, and it is likely to be a smooth trend market.

The situation has changed, the cup handle is no longer valid, it has turned into a wedge pattern, and we will temporarily not focus on 93800.