International oil prices remain stable amid expectations of the end of the US-Iran war

International oil prices remained unchanged on the 15th( local time) amid ongoing expectations of an end to negotiations in the US-Iran conflict, with no clear direction.
That day, ICE Futures Europe in London closed June Brent crude oil futures at $94.93 per barrel, up 0.1% from the previous trading day;
NYMEX May West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose by only 1 cent, closing at $91.29 per barrel.
Market sentiment leaned more towards focusing on the fact that, although military tensions in the Middle East have not been fully resolved, they may not escalate into a long-term full-scale conflict.

The reason for oil prices not surging significantly is related to statements from the US government.
US President Donald Trump said in an interview with Fox Business Channel that the war with Iran is “about to end,” and he claimed that once the situation calms down, oil prices will also drop sharply.
White House spokesperson Kayleigh McEnany also clarified that both the US and Iran are still committed to negotiations and dialogue.
Regarding reports of a two-week extension of the ceasefire, she distanced herself, saying it is not the case at the moment, but did not rule out the possibility of negotiations, which to some extent supported market expectations of a ceasefire.

However, concerns about supply disruptions have not completely dissipated.
US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that the US will no longer update sanctions exemptions on Russian and Iranian crude oil, which is seen as a potential factor tightening oil supply again.
Additionally, the US military’s blockade of Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz also exerts pressure.
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical route for Middle Eastern oil transportation; any disruption here would cause sensitive reactions in international oil prices.
However, the New York Times reported that during the first 24 hours of the blockade, over 20 neutral ships unrelated to Iran passed through the strait.
Compared to the average of about 130 ships per day before the conflict, this is far from normal, but it indicates that maritime transportation has not completely halted.

A decline in US domestic crude oil inventories also limited the fall in oil prices.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced that for the week ending April 10, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 910k barrels from the previous week.
This was in stark contrast to the market expectation summarized by Reuters, which anticipated an increase of 200k barrels.
An unexpected inventory decline suggests that short-term supply may not be as ample as expected, thus, while the ceasefire expectations suppressed oil prices, it also limited the extent of the decline.
Such a trend is likely to continue in the future, depending on the pace of Middle East negotiations, whether maritime traffic in the strait returns to normal, and how US sanctions on Iran interact with each other.