Ray Dalio: The United States is on the edge of the "Great Cycle" fifth phase, facing risks of civil war and order collapse

BlockBeats News, January 27 — Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio posted an in-depth analysis on social media, warning that the United States is currently in its “Great Cycle” theory’s fifth stage (the eve of order collapse). Multiple indicators suggest society may be sliding into the sixth stage (civil war and order breakdown). His core assessments include:

· Financial and Conflict Deterioration: High government deficits, rising debt, and a historic gap between wealth and values, forming a “classic deadly combination.”

· Populism and Extremism: Increasing political polarization, the silencing of moderates, media becoming tools for partisan struggles, and the “loss of truth” in the public sphere.

· Escalation of Violence: Recent incidents such as the death of protesters in Minneapolis and conflicts between federal and state governments are typical signs of transitioning into the sixth stage.

· Systemic Dysfunction: Legal and political systems are increasingly used as weapons in struggles, with rules giving way to a logic of “winning at all costs.”

Ray Dalio states that the current situation is highly similar to the pre-restructuring period of order from 1930 to 1945. If leadership cannot build consensus and implement painful but necessary reforms, society may repeat the cycle of civil war/revolution. Investors and policymakers should recognize the cyclical forces, promote productivity-oriented reforms (education, infrastructure, research), and replace “zero-sum struggles” with “win-win cooperation” to prevent the system from sliding into irreversible collapse. Although the trajectory is difficult to change, before slipping into the sixth stage, it remains possible and essential to mitigate conflicts and reshape broad prosperity through wise choices.