VanEck: The four-year Bitcoin cycle has been broken in 2025, and the outlook for the next 3 to 6 months remains cautious.

On January 13, VanEck issued a statement saying, “Entering 2026, fiscal and monetary policy signals are becoming increasingly clear, and the overall market is leaning more towards risk appetite. Artificial intelligence, private credit, gold, and cryptocurrencies are showing more attractive investment opportunities after adjustments. The market environment in 2026 presents a scene that investors have never seen in years: a clear market outlook. Clear expectations around fiscal policy, monetary policy directions, and core investment themes support the adoption of more constructive, risk-oriented strategies in the market, although high discernment is still required in asset selection. In the crypto market, Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle was broken in 2025, making short-term signals more complex. This divergence makes the trend over the next 3–6 months more cautious. However, this view is not a consensus; there are still disagreements within the team, with Matthew Sigel and David Schassler holding relatively more optimistic views on the short-term performance of the current cycle.”