Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week: The Week of Fed's Decision! The Fed Faces the "Ultimate Showdown"

On November 30, this week, affected by the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, market Trading Volume has been very low, which is a typical characteristic of Thanksgiving trading. However, due to the CME “pulling the plug” on Friday because of a data center failure, Spot gold and silver experienced severe Fluctuation, and continued to rise after futures prices resumed quoting, with gold prices rising nearly 150 dollars this week, returning above 4200 dollars. In terms of data, the U.S. September PPI and retail sales data performed poorly, and the weekly private sector employment data released by ADP was also quite weak. On Tuesday at 09:00, Fed Chairman Powell will speak at a commemorative event; at 23:00 on Tuesday, Fed Governor Bowman will testify before the House committee. On Wednesday at 21:15, U.S. November ADP employment numbers; at 21:30, U.S. September import price index month-on-month; at 22:15, U.S. September industrial production month-on-month; at 22:45, U.S. November S&P Global Services PMI final value; at 23:00, U.S. November ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI; on Thursday at 21:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29; at 23:00 on Friday, U.S. December one-year inflation rate expectations preliminary value, December University of Michigan consumer sentiment index preliminary value, September core PCE price index year-on-year, September personal spending month-on-month, September core PCE price index month-on-month. If November service sector activity shows healthy growth again, it will support hawks within the Fed, while if it suddenly drops to 50.0 or lower, it will support reasons for an immediate rate cut. Equally important is next Wednesday's ADP employment report. The official November non-farm payroll report will not be released until December 16, and with the October report being canceled, the ADP private sector employment survey will provide important updates on the labor market.