Preview: Tonight's interest rate cut is "set in stone", with policy suspense shifting to "the number and pace of rate cuts"

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On October 29, the Fed will announce its interest rate decision tonight (2 AM Beijing time on Thursday), followed by a monetary policy press conference by Fed Chairman Powell at 2:30 AM. The market is no longer focused on a single rate cut itself; the suspense of the policy has shifted to “the number and pace of rate cuts.” According to CME's “Fed Watch,” before tonight's interest rate decision, the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in October is currently reported at 99.4%, while the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is 0.6%. The probability of the Fed cutting rates by a cumulative 50 basis points by December is currently reported at 91.3%, the probability of a cumulative cut of 25 basis points is reported at 8.6%, and the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is 0.1%. The next two FOMC meeting dates are October 29 and December 10.

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