Cryptocurrencies and Fresh Inflation Data: How This Changes Expectations from the Fed in September 2025?

Hello, crypto-enthusiasts! Today, September 15, 2025, we already know the fresh inflation figures: CPI for August rose by 0.4% month-over-month (seasonally adjusted) and by 2.9% year-over-year — that's higher than 2.7% in July, but within economists' forecasts. The data came out on September 11 and showed "sticky" inflation, partly due to tariff impacts pushing up prices on goods like clothing, with food prices jumping 0.5% and energy up 0.7% as gasoline rose 1.9%. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) edged up to 3.1% YoY. Now, with that in mind, let's return to the main topic: the Fed meeting on September 17-18. Markets are expecting a rate cut — 25 basis points (bps) with a probability of over 95%, but the chance of 50 bps has risen to about 25% after these data. Will the cut exceed expectations? And will the Fed remain "dovish" (oriented towards further easing)? Let's break it down in the context of crypto.

First, about exceeding expectations: Possible, but 25 bps remains the baseline with a 75% likelihood, while 50 bps could surprise if Powell stresses labor risks. The cut would bring the range to 5.00-5.25% from the current 5.25-5.50%, as priced in by CME FedWatch Tool and Reuters surveys. August CPI's uptick to 2.9% YoY tempers aggression, but with core at 3.1% and unemployment at 4.3%, the Fed is balancing inflation control with employment support — a jumbo cut risks signaling panic. For crypto, this means potential volatility but no guaranteed moonshot: BTC after the CPI release initially dipped but stabilized around $115k, and ETH is holding at $4,517, without sharp jumps.

Now about the "dovish" tone: Yes, the Fed will likely remain dovish. Powell at Jackson Hole already hinted that 3% inflation is the "new normal," and the focus will shift to supporting employment (unemployment 4.3%). Markets anticipate 2-3 cuts by the end of 2025, totaling 75 bps, despite sticky prices. This has historically been beneficial for crypto: cheap money stimulates risky assets, strengthening BTC's correlation with Nasdaq. A fresh perspective — in 2025 with ETFs and institutions, crypto reacts faster: after CPI, trading volumes rose by 15%, but without panic, signaling market maturity.

In the end, the cut could exceed expectations if it hits 50 bps (now at 25% odds), but the Fed will maintain a dovish tone, hinting at continuing the cycle. For crypto, this is a stabilizer: expect volatility after Powell's speech on September 18, but with potential growth amid a weak dollar.
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