2025 Crypto Assets Market Outlook: Four Major Scenarios and Eleven Predictions

Since 2024, the Crypto Assets market has experienced a strong rally. The launch of the Bitcoin ETF triggered a bull market, after which Bitcoin reached an all-time high, leading to a surge in altcoins. Currently, the price of Bitcoin hovers around 90,000.

It is worth noting that altcoin markets usually kick off when Bitcoin reaches its peak. The first round was Bitcoin attempting to break through $69,000, which it failed to do; the next round is expected to be an attempt to reach $100,000.

The next round of altcoin market trends is likely to occur after Bitcoin stabilizes at $100,000, expected in the first quarter of 2025. However, in the coming months, the market may replay the situation of the second/third quarter of 2024. Here are several possible scenarios:

Four Major Market Scenarios

Scene 1: Bitcoin and altcoins experience a general rise

In 2025, the overall market is optimistic, Bitcoin continues to rise, driving altcoins to surge across the board, reminiscent of the upward trend seen in the past two months. ( probability 30-40% )

Strategy: Choose high-quality altcoins and buy on dips.

Scenario 2: Bitcoin rises, some altcoins rise

Similar to the trend in 2024, the market is fluctuating upwards, but overall it is more optimistic than in 2024. ( probability 50-60% )

Strategy: Select high-quality altcoins to buy on dips, avoid popular tracks, and look for the next potential coin.

Scenario 3: Bitcoin rises, altcoins generally fall

( Probability 20-30% )

Strategy: Sell most of the altcoin holdings and reduce the investment ratio in altcoins. Consider liquidating altcoins that have not increased in the long term.

Scenario Four: Bitcoin and Altcoins Generally Decline

The market may have peaked. ( probability 10-20% )

Due to the favorable macro environment, the time for a new round of Bitcoin to break the historical high may not be as long as in 2024. The new government has now brought new attention to the digital asset sector, which has greatly changed the narrative around Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is likely to remain strong in 2025. The situation is similar for altcoins, but slightly different.

Risk Factors

Cycle Top Risk

Currently, we are not close to the cycle peak, but continuous assessment is needed. The cycle peak is not a specific event, but rather a process that gradually approaches.

Policy Risk

The policy direction of the new government deserves attention. Completely ignoring the Bitcoin reserve plan would be a bearish factor. More likely, the reserve plan will be postponed or shelved.

Supply Risk

Supply risks always exist, requiring close attention to the movements of a large number of Bitcoin holders.

Macroeconomic Risk

The expected rate cut is limited. As long as interest rates continue to decline, liquidity will improve, which is beneficial for Crypto Assets. The main risk is the resurgence of inflation, which could force an interest rate hike.

Investment Opportunities

1. AI Track: The next wave of the tide is about to arrive. Focus on application technology, collective intelligence, gaming, and consumer-level AI projects.

2. DeFi: Still an important track, but investment difficulty is relatively high. You can pay attention to projects like AAVE, ENA, Morpho, etc.

3. Public Chains: May rise again. Pay attention to projects like SUI, Hype, etc.

4. NFT and Game Tokens: NFT tokens are worth paying attention to, and it's important to delve into the game projects that are about to issue tokens.

5. Other Tracks: Data Tokens, Meme, DePIN, Ordinals, etc.

2025 11 Predictions

1. A certain large company will implement DePIN in some way.

2. A certain platform will lose its status as the largest exchange.

3. Metaverse tokens regain attention with the advancement of VR technology.

4. ICOs are rising again.

5. There will be no altcoin market on the Ethereum chain.

6. Sui reaches a two-digit price of at least 10 dollars (.

7. Ethereum ETF staking approved, leading to more staking yield products.

8. A well-known artist will use NFTs and tokens to maintain fan relationships.

9. Bitcoin reaches 200,000 USD.

10. More CEOs/founders of public chain projects resign.

11. Base lost in the competition with other public chains, and another public chain took its place. Solana continues to maintain its advantage.

Overall, the crypto market is expected to improve in 2025, but the performance of different projects and sectors may vary significantly. Investors need to carefully assess risks and select high-quality projects for investment.

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