2025 Crypto Market Outlook: Four Scenarios and Eleven Predictions

Since the beginning of 2024, the crypto market has experienced a new bull market cycle. After the launch of an ETF product on January 10, the price of Bitcoin soared to a historic high, driving the altcoin market. As we enter the second and third quarters of 2024, market volatility has intensified, with Bitcoin breaking through the $50,000 and $60,000 thresholds, currently hovering around $90,000.

It is worth noting that altcoin markets often start when Bitcoin hits a new high. The first wave was when Bitcoin surged to $69,000, but it failed to break through effectively. The next wave is likely to occur when Bitcoin stabilizes at $100,000, which is expected to happen in the first quarter of 2025. However, the situation seen in the second and third quarters of 2024 may also be repeated in the coming months.

The following are four possible market scenarios for 2025:

1. Bitcoin and altcoins are experiencing a broad rise. The overall market is expected to rise in 2025, mirroring the trend of the past two months, with various tokens performing well. There is a 30-40% possibility of this happening.

   Strategy: Choose high-quality altcoins and buy on dips.

2. Bitcoin is rising, and some altcoins are also increasing. Similar to 2024, the market is expected to fluctuate upwards in the coming months, but overall is bullish with a 50-60% possibility.

   Strategy: Select high-quality altcoins to buy on dips, avoid popular tracks, and look for potential targets.

3. Bitcoin is rising, while altcoins are generally falling with a possibility of 20-30% (.

   Strategy: Reduce or liquidate altcoins; projects with poor long-term performance can be considered for full sale.

4. Bitcoin and altcoins generally fell. The overall market is near its peak with a possibility of a 10-20% decline.

![Year-end series: 4 scenarios and 11 predictions for the 2025 market trend])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-f884553a5e863e9a4ac8e3416c62f400.webp(

Due to favorable macroeconomic conditions, the new round of Bitcoin historical highs may be surpassed faster than 2024. In the summer of 2024, when a certain ETF product is just launched, traditional financial institutions will still be struggling to promote Bitcoin to their clients. However, now that a new regime has come to power, there is renewed attention on digital assets, and the narrative around Bitcoin has changed.

Although the likelihood of establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve is low, the reputation of Bitcoin has clearly improved. The new regime frequently talks about Bitcoin, making it easier to persuade people to buy Bitcoin. This change of regime is extremely important for Bitcoin, and Bitcoin is expected to maintain its strength in 2025.

The total market value of the altcoin market reached a new high in the first quarter of 2024, the highest since 2021, and then peaked in the fourth quarter. It roughly follows the same pattern as the above scenarios 1 and 2, with no significant differences. The key lies in selection and timing.

Although the market outlook for 2025 is optimistic, it is still uncertain how long it will take. The rise in 2025 may start earlier than in 2024, but during periods lacking catalysts, altcoins may still experience significant declines. As long as the cycle has not ended, both Bitcoin and altcoins should remain optimistic. It is unlikely that 2025 will replicate the situation of the summer of 2024; while a similar stable period to the current one may occur, prices will still remain at a good level.

On-chain market conditions vary, and it is easy to see a 70% drop during a market downturn. It is expected that altcoins have not peaked at this time, as it is hard to imagine Bitcoin continuing to rise while altcoins are experiencing a "death," and there are no signs of Bitcoin peaking here.

Conclusion:

• Bitcoin is expected to continue rising, with an increase possibly exceeding 2024.
• Altcoins are generally on an upward trend, although there may be pullbacks, the extent could be smaller than in 2024.

Risk Factors

Cycle Top

Currently, we are still far from the cycle peak, but continuous assessment is needed. The cycle peak is not a specific "event", but rather a range that is gradually approaching.

Risks Related to Reserve Plans

After the new president takes office, the market will closely monitor his words and actions. Ignoring the reserve plan entirely would be quite a pessimistic signal. The more likely scenario is that the reserve plan is shelved or delayed. In this case: as long as it is beneficial for Bitcoin, it is bearish in the short term but bullish in the long term.

Supply Risk

Supply risks always exist. There are always some large holders holding a significant amount of Bitcoin, such as certain governments and certain trading platforms. This requires close attention, but if everything goes well, these events often present good buying opportunities on dips.

Macroeconomic Risk

The expected rate cut will be limited. As long as interest rates continue to decline, liquidity will improve. Unless there is a rate hike or a halt to rate cuts, the macro environment should be favorable for digital assets.

Downside risks include the resurgence of inflation, which may force interest rate hikes to curb inflation.

Token Recommendations

1. AI related

Several rounds of market fluctuations have already occurred. The next wave is expected to arrive soon. It is not recommended to buy and hold for the long term. Preferred application areas include technology, collective intelligence, gaming, and consumer-level AI.

Recommended: ALCH) game development (, Griffain) wallet agency (, Digimon, Ai16z, etc.

2. DeFi

DeFi will continue to be an important narrative, but the investment difficulty is relatively high, and there are not many tokens that can truly benefit. From a risk-reward perspective, it is not the first choice.

Recommendation: AAVE/ENA/Morpho/Euler/USUAL Secondary selection: stablecoins/payment-related tokens

3. L1 public chain

L1 may make a comeback. Certain L1s are overlooked areas in the market, containing huge opportunities.

Recommendation: SUI/Hype Secondary selection: Abstract

4. NFT tokens and game tokens

NFT tokens are worth paying attention to. PENGU is slowly recovering, and Azuki has ANIME tokens, among others. NFTs may not have a revival, but their tokens might make a comeback. It is also wise to look for interesting gaming projects with upcoming token launches.

Recommended: Pengu/Anime)Azuki(/Spellborne/Treeverse Second choice: Prime/Off the grid) like issuing tokens(/Overworld

5. Other Narratives

• Data Token: Kaito/Arkm
• Meme Coin: PEPE
• DePIN:PEAQ/HNT
• Ordinals
• Traditional DeFi: CRV/CVX

11 Predictions for 2025

1. A certain large company may enter the DePIN field through acquisition.
2. The market share of a certain trading platform will be surpassed by Bybit/OKX.
3. The progress of VR technology drives the revival of metaverse tokens.
4. The resurgence of ICOs
5. There will be no altcoin market on the Ethereum chain.
6. Sui reached a double-digit price of at least 10 dollars ) (
7. Ethereum ETF staking approved, giving rise to more staking yield products and yield aggregators.
8. A well-known artist uses NFTs and tokens to maintain fan relationships
9. Bitcoin reaches $200,000
10. More L1 project CEOs/founders leave
11. Base failed in the competition with L1, and another L1 took over. Solana maintains its advantage.

![Year-End Series: 4 Scenarios and 11 Predictions for the Market Trends in 2025])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-c7157de9b3bb195812bc10c95d8d51b8.webp(