Overview of the Development of Bitcoin ETF and Market Impact Analysis

Recently, several well-known institutions have submitted Bitcoin spot ETF applications to the SEC, attracting widespread attention in the market. This is seen as an important signal that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies may gain more institutional adoption. To gain a deeper understanding of the impact of institutional entry on the cryptocurrency market, this article analyzes the trading conditions of listed Bitcoin-related ETFs and trust funds.

Spot ETF and Trust Fund Holdings

As of July 18, the total holdings of the three funds BTCC.U, BTCE, and GBTC are approximately 675,600 BTC, valued at around $20.27 billion based on a recent price of $30,000/BTC. Since June, these three funds have collectively increased their holdings by 9,292 BTC, showing an overall growth trend. Among them, GBTC is the largest, holding 625,200 BTC, while both BTCC.U and BTCE have holdings of around 200,000 BTC.

In terms of performance, the spot ETF significantly outperforms the trust funds. As of July 18, BTCC.U's average return for this month is approximately 6.76%, with an average return of 8.84% for the year. In contrast, BTCE and GBTC have average returns for this month of -5.27% and -26.39%, respectively, with average returns for the year of -5.85% and -38.18%, both indicating losses, but the extent of the losses is showing a decreasing trend.

It is worth noting that since June, with more institutions applying for ETFs and the rise in BTC prices, the average daily trading volume of these funds has increased. The average daily trading volumes of BTCC.U, BTCC, BTCE, and GBTC have increased by 74.89%, 47.27%, 23.66%, and 112.67% respectively.

Bitcoin Futures ETF Performance

Currently, there are multiple Bitcoin futures ETFs listed and trading in the US market. As of July 18, the total asset size of the five major Bitcoin futures ETFs, BITO, XBTF, BTF, BITS, and DEFI, has reached $1.295 billion. Among them, BITO has the largest scale, with total assets reaching $1.199 billion.

These ETFs primarily track the Bitcoin futures contracts of the CME. BITO is the only ETF that is fully allocated to CME futures contracts, while other ETFs also allocate a certain proportion of other assets, such as U.S. Treasury bonds or other blockchain ETFs.

From the perspective of capital flow, BITO has the largest net inflow recently, with a net inflow of 259 million USD in the last month. Since the beginning of this year, all five futures ETFs have seen net inflows of capital, among which BITO has a net inflow of 333 million USD and XBTF has a net inflow of 6.58 million USD.

In terms of yield, BITS performed the best, with a yield of 33.20% in the past month and an impressive yield of 137.65% since the beginning of the year. Other ETFs have recently seen yields around 12%, with yields around 74% since the start of the year. Overall, the yield performance of futures ETFs is superior to that of spot ETFs and trust funds.

The Impact of ETF News on Bitcoin Prices

News about institutions applying for and issuing ETFs often affects the price of Bitcoin. After the announcement of a certain asset management company's application for a Bitcoin spot ETF, the price of Bitcoin rose by 19.49% within a week, with an average daily increase of 2.78%, which is the largest average daily increase brought about by news within the statistical scope.

In addition, during the rapid growth period of a certain trust fund, the daily average increase of Bitcoin reached 1.87%. Other significant increases include a certain company's futures ETF application month (1.56%), and a certain company's spot ETF approval month (1.33%), etc.

Overall, the impact of ETF news on Bitcoin prices may come from three aspects: first, the reputation of the applicant institution; second, the type of ETF, as spot ETF applications usually bring larger price increases; third, the price trend of Bitcoin at the time the news occurs. If the news occurs during an upward trend, it usually leads to a certain increase; if it occurs during a downward trend, it is difficult to reverse the market.

It is worth noting that the recent rise in Bitcoin prices may also be related to improvements in on-chain fundamentals. On July 18, the number of on-chain Bitcoin transactions reached 582,500, an increase of 210.83% compared to the beginning of the year. Since May, the number of on-chain transactions has mostly remained at a high level, which usually indicates an improvement in trading fundamentals and a potential for price increases.

In summary, the development of ETFs is closely related to the entire cryptocurrency market. The trading situation of Bitcoin ETFs in the future is worth continuous attention to better grasp market trends.