Conversation with Trader: HighFreedom Discusses Bitcoin Macroeconomic Analysis and Trading Strategies

HighFreedom is a cryptocurrency trader with a background in macroeconomic analysis from a brokerage. He shares his trading strategies, insights on the macroeconomy, and predictions for the future trends of the cryptocurrency market.

1. Trading Strategy of HighFreedom

1. Earn directional returns: Hold Bitcoin for the long term during a bull market to earn overall appreciation.

2. Earn volatility returns: Under the premise of controlling leverage, establish a coin-position long position when the Bitcoin price falls to an appropriate range, and close the position after the price rises to increase the Bitcoin holdings.

3. Reasons for strategy formation:

   • After going through several cycles, it was found that this strategy better aligns with one's own risk preferences and capital management needs.
   • Effectively avoid missing out on risks and reduce position costs
   • In the high-risk, high-drawdown crypto market, the effect is similar to high selling and low buying in spot trading.

4. Core Logic of the Strategy:

   • Combine directional returns with volatility returns
   • Do not miss the overall market rise, and increase Bitcoin holdings through fluctuation operations.
   • Especially suitable during a bull market, utilizing volatility tools to optimize positions.

5. Expected Earnings:

   • Long term: Overall returns of 3-5 times can be achieved during a bull market cycle.
   • Drawdown control: expected 20%-30%, extreme cases may reach 40%

6. Implementation considerations:

   • Strictly control leverage, recommended within 50%
   • Choose the right market timing, most suitable for a sideways market in a bull market.
   • Avoid operating during rapid bullish waves or when the market is overheated, as high capital costs lead to poor profit and loss.

2. Macroeconomics, US Stock Market and Cryptocurrency Market

1. Why pay attention to the US macro economy:

   • Market participants are divided into on-site participants ( seasoned players in the coin circle ) and off-site participants ( who enter through ETFs and so on ).
   • With the increase of off-market funds, the impact of the U.S. macro economy on the market has significantly increased.

2. U.S. Stock Market Structure:

   • Underlying: low-risk, low-return currency funds, government bonds, etc.
   • Mid-tier: Assets such as large technology stocks that have stable cash flow and certain growth potential.
   • Upper layer: small-cap stocks, high-risk high-return growth stocks
   • Top level: concepts stocks with extremely high risk, meme stocks, etc.

3. The positioning of Bitcoin in the US stock structure:

   • Between Russell 2000 and ARKK
   • Seen as a digital gold with certain fundamentals and high growth potential.

4. How to determine the direction of the altcoin market:

   • When the price of Bitcoin rises to a certain level, some funds may shift towards higher-risk altcoins.
   • The trend of altcoins depends on the liquidity of the entire market.
   • If high-risk stocks in the US market perform well, the altcoin market may rise.

5. Recent Market Changes:

   • The cleanup on July 4th mainly involved deleveraging within the coin market.
   • The clearing on August 5th is mainly related to the deleveraging of off-market funds such as US stocks.
   • A reversal may occur at the macro level in the fourth quarter, heralding a new bull market cycle.

3. Trader Growth Path

1. Basic Learning:

   • It is recommended to take the CFA Level I exam and systematically study the fundamentals of financial markets.
   • Master key skills such as macroeconomic analysis and industry analysis.

2. Deliberate Practice:

   • Pay attention to market trends daily, analyze the reasons behind the Token growth leaderboard.
   • Cultivate market sensitivity and trading intuition
   • Learn risk management, especially controlling leverage

3. Multi-dimensional Analysis:

   • Focus on on-chain data, the fundamentals of different coins, etc.
   • Build your own trading logic and system

4. Stop Doing List:

   • Overuse of leverage: Strictly control leverage levels, with a particular focus on the behavior of large holders.
   • Over-reliance on indicators: With the emergence of spot ETFs, the effectiveness of on-chain indicators may be weakened, requiring constant adaptation to new market logic and changes.

4. Recommended Traders

1. Fu Peng ( Northeast Securities ): has a deep understanding of US dollar assets and is skilled in systematic analysis.

2. Arthur Hayes: has a deep understanding of the US macroeconomy

3. Victor: Fund Manager, veteran in the coin circle, early miner, has a unique perspective on the market

4. Benson: An experienced player from the last bull market, providing helpful key cycle indicators.