The global tariff policy is turbulent, the crypto market is experiencing intensified fluctuations, and Bitcoin is rebounding from an oversold position.

Market Insights

Macroeconomic Environment

Recently, the global financial markets have been significantly affected by the U.S. tariff policy. The uncertainty surrounding this policy has weakened market confidence in the U.S. economy, and it is expected to continue to disrupt the markets in the coming months. U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar are showing a downward trend, while U.S. stocks are experiencing severe fluctuations, which have also impacted the cryptocurrency market.

Overview of the Cryptocurrency Market

This week, Bitcoin experienced a rebound after a significant drop, but the market overall lacks a clear hot direction. Some small cryptocurrencies are facing delisting risks, leading to significant price declines. Among the top 300 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, those with large fluctuations include:

Top five increases:

1. XCN: up 110%
2. FARTCOIN: Up 100%
3. GAS: Up 60%
4. LAYER: Up 40%
5. UXLINK: Up 30%

Top five declines:

1. BERA: down 40%
2. EOS: down 20%
3. MEW: Down 20%
4. W: Down 20%
5. NEAR: down 20%

It is worth noting that BERA, as a representative of the DeFi public chain, has fallen below its long-term support level, with a reduction of 300 million USD in its on-chain stablecoins over the past week. Meanwhile, FARTCOIN, as a meme token within the Solana ecosystem, has surged several times against the market trend, becoming the leader of this round of rebound.

On-chain data analysis

The inflow of funds into the Bitcoin market has stagnated, and market liquidity is rapidly contracting. Since the end of 2024, the market capitalization of altcoins has dropped from $1 trillion to $600 billion, with significant depreciation across various sectors. Institutional funds have seen a slight net outflow, and the global market is exhibiting panic sentiment. The market capitalization of stablecoins has slightly declined, reflecting a notable increase in investors' risk aversion.

The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is currently at 1.6, close to the bottom range, indicating that the market is generally in a state of loss.

Futures market situation

The futures funding rate remains at a low level this week, around 0.00%. The futures open interest continues to decline, indicating that major market funds are withdrawing. The futures long-short ratio is 1.9, showing that market sentiment is leaning towards greed, but the reference significance of this indicator has weakened.

Spot market performance

Bitcoin experienced significant volatility this week, while the altcoin market lacks new narrative drivers. The pressure in the global financial markets continues to intensify, and this weakness has spread to nearly all asset classes, making it difficult for the cryptocurrency market to remain insulated.

Overall, the current cryptocurrency market is in a phase of high uncertainty, and investors need to remain vigilant and closely monitor changes in the global macroeconomic situation and its potential impact on the cryptocurrency market.