Glassnode: Is the Metaverse doomed? On-chain data tells you the answer.

Source: Glassnode; Compiled by Wuzhu, Golden Finance

This week, we introduced another exploration for CBD use cases - analyzing metaverse tokens. Despite the price drop and fading hype, on-chain data indicates that major investors remain active, steadily accumulating and reducing their cost basis.

Does this signal a long-term bet on the recovery of the metaverse? First, let’s review how to analyze and interpret CBD data, and then apply that knowledge to the latest trends in the metaverse.

Understanding the Cost Base Distribution

Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) tracks the position of the token supply based on the average cost basis of holders. By analyzing changes in supply distribution, we can identify investor behavior - whether they are accumulating, selling, or reallocating their holdings.

How to Interpret the CBD Heatmap:

• Color Intensity (Supply Distribution)

Warm colors (red/yellow) indicate a high concentration of supply within a given price range, while cool colors (blue/green) indicate a lower supply volume.

• Vertical Axis (Cost Basis)

Each horizontal slice represents the price range of the last movement of a portion of the supply, showing how holders adjust their cost basis over time.

Tracking these changes helps us identify potential market turning points, where accumulation or distribution trends may indicate future price movements.

Metaverse Tokens: What the Cost Basis Distribution Data Reveals

In this analysis, we focus on metaverse tokens—The Sandbox (SAND), Decentraland (MANA), and Axie Infinity (AXS)—they are among the most prominent assets during the 2021 metaverse boom. Although the hype around virtual worlds has subsided, our focus shifts from user activity to examining investor behavior using cost basis distribution (CBD) data.

We are not assessing adoption metrics or in-game activities, but rather analyzing how token holders adjust their positions over time. Are they selling off, holding steady, or accumulating at lower prices? By tracking supply changes at different price levels, we can gain insights into how investor sentiment evolves in the post-hype phase, and whether accumulation trends suggest long-term confidence in these projects.

The Sandbox (SAND): Steady accumulation in a bear market

Despite the price volatility, on-chain data shows that accumulation is still ongoing. Holders with strong conviction are steadily increasing their positions, boosting their confidence in the project’s long-term potential.

Decentraland (MANA): Buy the dip

The supply concentration has significantly increased, reaching around 0.60 dollars, reflecting an increase in buying activity after the price drop. This indicates that investors see the price drop as a buying opportunity rather than a sign of further decline.

Axie Infinity (AXS): Long-term confidence remains strong.

Despite the ongoing downward trend, on-chain data shows that a large number of positions are gradually increasing. This pattern indicates that certain investors remain confident about the future of Axie Infinity.

Will the Metaverse Revive?

Speculative hype surrounding the metaverse may have faded, but on-chain activity indicates otherwise. The continued accumulation of major metaverse tokens suggests that many investors view these projects as undervalued opportunities rather than failures.

Does this lay the foundation for a future recovery? Although price trends remain uncertain, data shows that confidence among major market participants remains strong - they are positioning themselves accordingly.