On-chain data: The short-term selling pressure of BTC is mainly affected by grayscale, and the recent PCE situation determines the probability of a rate cut in March 1. The short-term selling pressure is mainly a grayscale problem, and grayscale does not want to drop management fees at present, which may lead to a decrease in the management scale. 2. Pay attention to the recent PCE situation, which determines the probability of a rate cut in March. On-chain long-term insights: ⬇️ 1. A large number of Whale chips of 48000 have been transferred, and it is currently 35000 and 40000 to gather a large number of chips; 2. The high-quality selling pressure has reached the highest in two years, which may be related to grayscale; 3. The panicked selling pressure shows that the market has become extremely sensitive above 45000; 4. Corrected data: the percentage of profit in physical chips has reached 95% at 48000; 5. The global Derivatives status is currently shown to be moderate, not dangerous and unsafe. • Market tone: Dangerously lower than the previous week, entering a break. On-chain mid-term probing: ⬇️ 1. Overall Market Cap growth is still in an rising channel; 2. On-chain sentiment may not have recovered in the short to medium term, but has fallen to recent peaks; 3. Whale accumulation is weak and may be in a wait-and-see state at present; 4. WTR risk factor 1 shows, down to a lower value. • The market sets the tone: Adjustment On the whole, there is still medium and long-term incremental support, and there is no lack of thrust, but the market has certain short-term disagreements and sentiment problems at present. On-chain short-term observations: ⬇️ 1. The risk factor is in the neutral zone, and the risk is moderate. 2. The new active Address is relatively low. 3. Market Sentiment State Rating: Neutral. 4. The net position of the exchange as a whole showed a state of moderate inflow accumulation, and the selling pressure was moderate. 5. The global purchasing power has lost to negative value, and the purchasing power of Stable Coin has recovered slightly. 6. The off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at the price of 40,000 and a willingness to sell at the price of 45,000. 7. The probability of not falling below 36000~38000 in the short term is 75%, and the probability of not falling below 45000 to 47000 in the short term is 65%. • Market tone: Short-term market activity and purchasing power are low, and market sentiment remains neutral. This week, when the supply and demand of chips remain unchanged, it is expected that the shock adjustment may be short-lived. (Source: WTR Institute)

The latest data on the chain: the market has entered a rest period with poor liquidity, and it is prudent to participate in small-cap currencies According to Glassnode data, the balance of Bitcoin and Ethereum on the exchange has hit a new low in nearly 5 years. The current balance of Bitcoin on the trading platform is 2,256,045 pieces; the balance of Ethereum on the trading platform is 14,736,436 pieces. 1. In any case, the interest rate hike cycle will eventually come to an end, and the headwind time is limited. 2. The spot ETF and the halving will be carried out at the same time, which is also worth looking forward to. Next year's interest rate cut is expected to be in the first quarter; generally speaking, next year, whether it is the international economy, the capital market, or the encryption market, is a year worth looking forward to. Interest rate cuts, ETFs, and halving are carried out at the same time. Long-term insights on the chain: 1. There have been two potential profit pressures this year, but the profit pressure is not high this year; 2. The period from February to May of 2023 will see the greatest profit pressure in this year; 3. The current profit pressure has reached a new low this year. • Market tone: Currently entering a rest period, liquidity may be relatively tight and slow. On-chain mid-term exploration: The accumulation status of giant whales is relatively weak; Short-term funds have significantly weak repair traces; In the medium term, it may be necessary to absorb the loss chips and change hands. • The market sets the tone: wait As far as the current market is concerned, what may be worried about is the short-term liquidity support problem and the loss-making chips above. On-chain short-term observation: 1. The risk factor is in the safe area and the risk is moderate. 2. The newly added active addresses are at the median level, and the market activity is average. 3. Rating of the state of market sentiment: cold to weak. 4. The overall net position of the exchange showed an accumulation of outflows, and the selling pressure was low. 5. The purchasing power of the world has been completely lost, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has recovered slightly. 6. Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at the price of 25,500; there is a willingness to sell at the price of 30,000. 7. The probability of not falling below 20000~22000 in the short term is 87%; the probability of not rising above 28000~30000 in the short term is 69%. • Market tone: In the short term, there is not much change from last week. Not optimistic, cold. The current price is lower than the cost of short-term holders, and short-term holders face large unrealized losses. Strategic suggestion: spot dynamic hedging (Data source: WTR Research Institute)

The latest data on the chain: the global purchasing power is lost, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has recovered slightly From August 14th to August 21st last week, the highest value of BTC was around $29695, and the lowest value was close to $25166, with a volatility of about 15.25%. Observing the chip distribution chart, a large number of chips are traded around 26,000, and there will be certain support or pressure. analyze: 1. 26000-31000 about 4.12 million pieces; 2. 20000~25000 about 1.62 million pieces; The probability of not falling below 20000~22000 in the short term is 87%; Among them, the probability of not breaking through 28000~30000 in the short term is 69%. Long-term insights on the chain: 1. The overall selling pressure is still not high, and the level of lift is also low; 2. The leverage ratio has not increased; 3. The pressure within the exchange has not changed much; 4. Insufficient motivation due to low market expectations; 5. The research progress of the latest feature engineering: the experimental version update of the short squeeze and burst multi state. Market tone: The market is relatively fragile. In the medium and long term, a certain degree of leverage reduction and risk control position management may be required. It takes a certain amount of time to pay attention to or track, and there may be a risk of liquidity squeeze due to fragility. On-chain mid-term exploration: 1. Judging from the cumulative rate of change, the long-term accumulation state of the market is still continuing 2. Judging from the recent situation, the market is in a state of sharp decline in accumulation. At the same time, this state has continued from July to August until now, and it has only recently eased and recovered. The wait-and-see state is obvious. Market tone: downturn, wait and see On-chain short-term observation: 1. The risk factor is on the upper edge of the safe zone, and the risk is reduced. 2. The new active addresses on the chain are relatively high, and the activity on the chain is good. 3. Rating of the state of market sentiment: cold to weak. 4. The overall net position of the exchange showed an accumulation of outflows, and the selling pressure was low. 5. The purchasing power of the world has been completely lost, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has recovered slightly. 6. Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at the price of 25,500; there is a willingness to sell at the price of 30,000. 7. The probability of not falling below 20000~22000 in the short term is 87%; Among them, the probability of not breaking through 28000~30000 in the short term is 69%. The market set the tone: the current price temporarily fell below the short-term holder cost line, and the market's positive sentiment was not high and short-term weak. Strategic suggestion: spot dynamic hedging (Data source: WTR Research Institute)

The latest on-chain data: On-chain selling pressure ushered in a historical low, and the short-term market is still volatile Long-term insights on the chain: 1. The on-chain selling pressure of spot products reached a historical low; 2. The historically low points correspond to the approximate price bottom time period. The market sets the tone: the situation about more dimensions remains unchanged from last few weeks, but the selling pressure has continued to converge. On-chain mid-term exploration: 1. From a macro-cycle perspective, the loss pressure of participants in 1-2 years and 2-3 years is being gradually digested; 2. From the perspective of structural swaps, internal liquidity is relatively increasing; 3. The accumulation situation within 1 month (short to medium term) is weak; Market tone: neutral to cold The enthusiasm of spot participants is weak, and they may continue to slide when the current market status does not change. Changes in derivatives require additional analysis. On-chain short-term observation: 1. The risk factor is in the neutral area, and the risk is low. 2. The newly added active addresses are at a relatively high level, and the activity on the chain is good. 3. Market sentiment state rating: Neutral. 4. The overall net position of the exchange showed an accumulation of outflows, and the selling pressure was low. 5. A slight recovery in global purchasing power. 6. Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at the price of 28500; there is a willingness to sell at the price of 31000. 7. The probability of not falling below 24000~26000 in the short term is 85%; the probability of not rising above 32000~34000 in the short term is 60%. Market tone: The overall market sentiment is neutral, and it is still volatile in the short term, and the probability of large downward fluctuations is low. Strategy suggestion: maintain positions and dynamically hedge. (Data source: WTR Research Institute)

Data on the chain: we are at the end of the interest rate, the plateau period before the interest rate cut The past year has been a year of gradual rise and rise in interest rates, and a year of expected tightening. In an environment where cash is the most abundant asset. And when interest rates start to drop, global participants and investors will have to find some high returns from global stocks to gold to cryptocurrencies. Long-term insights on the chain: 1. The selling pressure that flowed into exchanges before is being gradually digested by the market, and the total amount of selling pressure is still not high in the long run; 2. Since May of this year, new chips have increased the most in four years; 3. The spot selling pressure has survived the period of high pressure. The market sets the tone: In the long run, it may be time to take over and make a transition, and this process may be relatively long. Without additional incentives, it needs to slowly return to a squeezed or unbalanced state internally, thereby driving market pricing. On-chain mid-term exploration: 1. The status of giant whale deposits is currently relatively slow; 2. The net balance of BTC exchanges is hovering; 3. The willingness to hold currency has stagnated, and the short-term supply has relatively weakened; 4. The potential of spot buyers has been weak in the past month Market tone: stagnant The market has fallen into a consistent state of stagnation, and the supply of short-term liquidity is relatively weakened. It may be necessary to pay attention to uncertain risks in the near future. On-chain short-term observation: 1. The risk factor is in the dangerous area, and the risk has increased. 2. The new active addresses are at a relatively high level, and the market activity is good. 3. Market sentiment state rating: Neutral. 4. The overall net position of the exchange showed an accumulation of outflows, and the selling pressure was low. 5. A large loss of global purchasing power, while the purchasing power of stablecoins rebounded slightly. 6. Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at the price of 28500; there is a willingness to sell at the price of 32000. 7. The probability of not falling below 24000~26000 in the short term is 78%; 8. The probability that the price will not rise above 32000~34000 in the short term is 67%. Market tone: The overall short-term market sentiment is neutral. It may continue to oscillate, and it will not be too far away from large fluctuations. Strategy suggestion: maintain positions and dynamically hedge. (Data source: WTR Research Institute)

On-chain data: market activity is low, and short-term downward fluctuations are limited Long-term insights on the chain: The difficulty for bears in this year's environment is extremely high, while bulls were only severely squeezed at the end of February this year; You can also pay attention to the long-term market conditions in the future. The market environment has undergone a complete transformation compared with last year. The market sets the tone: it is more difficult to short this year. On-chain mid-term exploration: The volatility risk caused by the proportion of derivatives has not reached a high level Stablecoins have formed relatively sufficient purchasing power within the exchange, and may perform better when the trend remains unchanged in the medium term. Internet sentiment is relatively weak, and may be currently in a state of adjustment. The market is currently maintaining a state of being biased towards accumulation, and the short-term supply has increased. Market setting: adjustment; The current sentiment in the market is slightly weaker, but there are signs of a slight incremental recovery in liquidity. It may still be in the adjustment stage, but there will be a relatively sufficient purchasing power gap in the medium term. On-chain short-term observation: The risk coefficient is in the neutral area, and the risk has decreased. The new active addresses are at a relatively high level, and the market activity is good. Market Sentiment State Rating: Neutral. The overall net position of the exchange showed a large outflow state, and the selling pressure was low. The purchasing power of the world is at the middle level, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has recovered slightly. Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at the price of 28,500; there is a willingness to sell at the price of 32,000. The probability of not falling below 24000~26000 in the short term is 85%, and the probability of not rising above 32000~34000 in the short term is 60%. Market tone: The overall market sentiment is neutral. Trading activity and risk appetite decreased. Short-term downward volatility may be limited. Strategic advice: keep positions and choose opportunities to hedge. (Data source: WTR Research Institute)

Data on the chain: the current selling pressure is small, the profit margin is increasing, and the medium-term digestion pressure may increase Long-term insights on the chain: 1. About a month ago, risk aversion began to ease; 2. The backlog of profits in the market is increasing. If the market value continues to grow in the short to medium term, the growth space in terms of time and space may become relatively limited; 3. Long-term participants did not inject much selling pressure into the exchange, more of a wait-and-see attitude. • Market tone: The market is not panicking, but profit margins are increasing, which may increase the pressure of digestion in the medium term. On-chain mid-term exploration: 1. The current chain is in a relatively positive state; 2. Short-term participants have a certain amount of supply injected into the market, but the market may touch the threshold of 97.5% of short-term profits at any time; 3. The BTC risk factor decreases, and the coin mixer has a certain output; 4. The high-weight selling pressure group declines; 5. The seller has not sold; • Setting the market tone: the test The market may be in a state of accumulating strength and sprinting, and the current selling pressure is relatively small, but the risk is still a matter of the market's acceptance of the winners. On-chain short-term observation: 1. The risk factor is in the danger zone, with a slight increase in risk. 2. The new active addresses are at a moderate level, and the market activity is good. 3. Market sentiment rating: Cautious to bullish. 4. The overall net position of the exchange showed a large amount of outflow, and the selling pressure decreased. 5. The global purchasing power has rebounded, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has rebounded slightly. 6. Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at the price of 28,000; there is a willingness to sell at the price of 32,000. 7. The probability of not falling below 24000~26000 in the short term is 85%; 8. The probability that the price will not rise above 32000-34000 in the short term is 60%. • Market tone: Market risk appetite has risen, and positive signals have increased, but there are still differences, and there may be problems with limited upward momentum. More cautious. Strategic advice: keep positions and choose opportunities to hedge. (Data source: glassnode, WTR)

On-chain data: the spot stock is showing a large outflow state, but the selling pressure has been reduced Long-term insights on the chain: Long-term players held off on accumulating holdings and turned to a slightly selling state. The enthusiasm on the chain is relatively declining, and the market sentiment and activity have reached a certain level of weakness. The macro spot selling pressure on the chain is at a historically low level, and the restoration of confidence and the promotion of the purchasing power of funds are needed now. The net position of the exchange above 10 million US dollars shows an inflow, and there may be a large amount of capital suppression. Market tone: weak. It is recommended to extend long-term expectations to deal with weak conditions. On-chain mid-term exploration: The supply of short-term participants is small, and the mid- and long-term groups are still slowly accumulating; short-term participants deposit more coins, reaching 0.89% of the supply, and the warning value is 1%; long-term participants deposit less coins, and are relatively inclined to hold coins ; The WTR risk index is fluctuating, and the current market may not have reached a stable state. The market sets the tone: anxiety and fierce competition A relatively intense game has been launched on the market, and the change of hands is still continuing. The selling pressure is concentrated in the short-term chips. It may be that the recent state of pressure and the state of interaction between handicap emotions will make the market unstable. On-chain short-term observation: The risk factor is at the lower edge of the neutral area, and bulls are under pressure. The new active addresses are relatively low, and the market activity is low. Market Sentiment State Rating: Depressed. The overall net position of the exchange showed a large outflow, and the selling pressure was reduced. Global purchasing power loss, stable currency purchasing power loss. The off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at the price of 24,500; there is a willingness to sell at the price of 29,000. The probability of not falling below 18000~22000 in the short term is 58%, and the probability of not rising above 26500~29000 in the short term is 71%. Market tone: The current market sentiment is sluggish, the level of activity is low, and the bulls lack momentum. Strategic advice: Trade within a narrow range or choose an opportunity to hedge risks. (Data source: WatchToweR)