Expectativa de aumento de taxas pelo Banco do Japão aumenta: 90% dos economistas apostam em ação em dezembro, e a taxa de juros pode ultrapassar 1% no próximo ano

【比推】Recent market focus has probably been on the actions of the Bank of Japan. The economic survey results from early December are quite interesting — out of 70 economists, 63 expect the central bank to move at next week’s meeting, raising the short-term interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75%. This consensus has nearly doubled compared to last month, jumping from 53% directly to 90%, indicating that market expectations are now highly aligned.

Even more importantly, the forward-looking judgment: over two-thirds of respondents believe that by the end of September next year, the rate will need to reach at least 1%. This is essentially a warning to the market — Japan’s ultra-easy monetary policy may truly be coming to an end.

There are also signals on the political front. Prime Minister Sanae’s new government does not appear to oppose this rate hike, as inflation pressures and the yen’s continued depreciation are forcing them to tolerate tighter monetary policy from the BoJ. Since the last move in January this year, this will be Japan’s first real rate increase within the year. For those holding yen-denominated assets or focusing on cross-border arbitrage, the chain reaction of this policy shift might just be beginning.