The interest rate hike in Japan (assuming it refers to the end of the negative interest rate policy or an increase in short-term policy interest rates) is a crucial step in monetary policy normalization, which will have profound impacts on the domestic economy, global financial markets, and capital flows. The following is a detailed analysis:

1. Impact on the Japanese domestic economy
1. Suppress inflation pressure and ease the actual burden of interest rate.
Inflation regulation: Japan's core CPI has exceeded the 2% target for several consecutive months. Raising interest rates can suppress import-driven inflation (rising energy and food prices) and domestic demand-driven inflationary pressures.
Household savings income: Long-term negative Interest Rate leads to the actual shrinkage of residents' deposits. Raising interest rates may increase savings returns, but it may also suppress consumption expenditure.
2. Rising costs of corporate and government debt
-Corporate Financing Pressure: Japanese companies have long relied on low-interest loans (with about 70% of corporate loans at floating Intrerest Rate), and a rate hike will directly increase debt burden, especially impacting small and medium-sized enterprises and the real estate industry significantly.
Surge in government bond interest: Japanese government debt accounts for about 260% of GDP, and if the yield on 10-year government bonds rises by 1%, annual interest expenses may increase by about 10 trillion yen, exacerbating fiscal deficit pressure.

3. Improvement of the banking industry margin
-Net interest margin expansion: Long-term negative Intrerest Rate compression of bank profits, after the interest rate hike, the deposit and loan interest spread rebounded, benefiting the profitability of large banks (such as Mitsubishi UFJ, Sumitomo Mitsui).

2. Impact on the global financial markets
1. The exchange rate of the Japanese Yen has fluctuated significantly
Short-term appreciation pressure: Interest rate hike narrows the interest rate differential between Japan and the United States, closing out carry trades, pushing the yen higher (e.g. if the US-Japan interest rate differential narrows by 1%, the yen may appreciate by 5-10%).
Export companies under pressure: The appreciation of the yen weakens the competitiveness of export companies such as Toyota and Sony, and the Nikkei index may face pressure for a correction.
2. International Capital Flows Shift
Capital inflows to Japan: Global investors may reduce holdings of high-yield overseas assets (such as US Treasury bonds, emerging market stocks) and repatriate funds to Japan, leading to an increase in US Treasury bond yields and depreciation of emerging market currencies.
Weakened risk aversion: If the Japanese yen strengthens due to interest rate hikes, the demand for it as a safe-haven currency may decrease, and gold or the US dollar may become more popular.

3. Global Bond Market Chain Reaction
Japan selling overseas bonds: Japanese insurance and pension institutions hold about $1.3 trillion in overseas bonds (mainly US bonds). If domestic interest rates rise, it may trigger a sell-off, exacerbating the volatility of US bonds.

3. Impact on Asia-Pacific and Emerging Markets
1. Competitive Devaluation of Asian Currencies
Narrowing interest rate differential pressure: If the Japanese yen appreciates, the Korean won, the Chinese yuan, etc. may passively depreciate to maintain export competitiveness, exacerbating regional exchange rate frictions.
Capital outflow risk: Southeast Asian countries (such as Thailand, Indonesia) rely on Japanese investment, and capital outflow may cause volatility in the stock and bond markets.

2. Differentiation of commodity prices
Decline in import costs: The appreciation of the yen has reduced the import costs of Japanese energy (crude oil, LNG), which may restrain the global energy price increase.
Resource-based currencies under pressure: Australia (iron ore), Brazil (soybeans) export revenue to Japan shrinks, Australian dollar, real may weaken.

4. Long-term Policy Challenges
1. Sustainability of Policy Shift
- Fragile economic recovery: Japan's actual GDP growth rate has been consistently below 1%, and if interest rates are raised too quickly, it may stifle domestic demand and force the central bank to loosen again.
Deflation risk reappears: if inflation falls below 1%, the Bank of Japan may be forced to restart bond purchases or negative interest rates, weakening market confidence in policy fluctuations.

2. The Necessity of Structural Reform
Labor shortage and stagnant wages: Raising interest rates cannot solve fundamental problems such as an aging population, low productivity, etc., and needs to be accompanied by fiscal stimulus (such as increasing immigration quotas, encouraging female employment).

5. Indirect Impact on the Cryptocurrency Market
Change in risk appetite: If the Japanese yen appreciates and leads to a global liquidity squeeze, high-risk assets like Bitcoin may face selling pressure.
- Arbitrage capital transfer: Some arbitrage trades using Japanese yen as financing currency may be liquidated, exacerbating market volatility.

-Summary
The rate hike in Japan signifies that there is no money in the market in the short term. The market is temporarily out of funds, and under the impact of domestic deepseek, the US stock market is facing an avalanche. Therefore, the previous analysis indicators remain unchanged. If you are not convinced, you can continue to go long. It is possible that Bitcoin will fall below 90,000 in the short term, so it is not as optimistic as everyone thinks. I will analyze it for you next time. In fact, deepseek is a buried mine. Remember me, I am depth, depth strategy.