Shouchuang Futures: Trump issues final ultimatum to Iran, domestic oil and fat fluctuate at high levels

Today, domestic oilseed oils mainly saw high-level sideways-to-volatile trading. Soybean oil traded slightly stronger, with the September contract rising 0.85%. Palm oil in September continued to range roughly around the 10,000-point level, while rapeseed oil stayed flat. During the holiday, Thailand announced that it would implement a one-year palm oil export restriction starting April 7. Thailand’s annual palm oil exports are 1–1.3 million tons, mainly flowing to India. This portion of India’s demand may shift toward Southeast Asian palm oil and China’s soybean oil. On Monday, Trump announced the final ultimatum to Iran, stating that if an agreement cannot be reached before 8:00 p.m. on April 7, a destructive strike will be launched. The market remains cautious about this stance, and international crude oil continues to trade with a slight upward bias. On the domestic fundamentals front, it is expected that April’s crushing will fall compared with March, and soybean oil will continue to destock in the short term. Overall, the Middle East conflict trend faces a short-term decision point, with relatively large volatility risks. In the future, the degree to which crude oil supply remains restricted will determine changes in the potential demand for international oilseed products and the available pricing upside. In terms of strategy, it is recommended to maintain a mildly bullish outlook in the near term, but remain alert to the risk of sentiment turning back and forth. (First Capital Futures)