$RIVER A slow decline to the end: Is this a golden pit triggered by a "mismatch," or the final trap to lure more buyers?

Many fellow enthusiasts have been watching $RIVER fall from its January high down to around $87 now, thinking this coin is already worthless. But I believe that the current market has already shown very obvious signs of a “failure-based bottoming” pattern, and the risk-reward (R/R) for bottom-fishing has been maximized.

1. Logical level: thorough shakeout, all negative news exhausted

$11 's sharp decline over the past two months was mainly driven by liquidity panic caused by “overvaluation + low circulating supply.” With a fully diluted valuation (FDV) reaching 1.1 billion, but only 20% circulating supply. After this drop of over 85%, not only have the early profit-taking positions been wiped out, but more importantly, the recent “Sell the News” selling pressure following Hyperliquid’s token listing has been digested.

2. Data support: exhausted bears, bulls accumulating strength

• Short-term squeeze: The market bottomed out on April 7. On that day, $RIVER rebounded violently by 19% amid overall market weakness, with trading volume surging 60%. This indicates that within the $10-$RIVER range, major players are eager to buy in, and bears no longer have enough chips to push lower.
• Chip distribution: Turnover rate has recently stayed above 20%, with chips deeply exchanged between high-position trapped holders and low-position bargain hunters.

3. Trend analysis: double bottom structure emerging

On the 4-hour chart, a strong support zone has formed between $10.6 and $11.0 (Demand Zone). RSI has stabilized and rebounded from oversold territory, forming a bullish divergence. As long as BTC doesn’t experience an extreme plunge, $11 is likely to complete its bottoming here and start a revenge rally toward $RIVER or even $15 .

4. Trading strategy suggestions:

• Spot/multiplier positions: Build positions gradually between $10.8 and $11.3.
• Defensive stop-loss: Exit if it drops below $9.8 (a breakdown here would invalidate the logic).
• Target levels: First target at $13.2 (former resistance turned support), second target at $16.5.

Summary: Don’t chase high during noisy times; buy when no one is paying attention. The fundamental value of $18 (EVM L5 & privacy communication) remains unchanged; what has changed is market sentiment.

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