Everbright Securities: Maintain the "Buy" rating for Haidilao 26-year new inflection point strategic management comprehensive upgrade

China Galaxy Securities releases a research report stating that, maintaining Haidilao(06862)'s “Buy” rating, the unexpectedly strong operating data during the 2026 Spring Festival fully verifies Haidilao’s resilience in recovery and its leading competitive advantages; combined with management changes leading to efficiency improvements, growth potential from new categories, and the support of high dividend value, the company’s short-term performance and long-term logic are both reinforced. The firm adjusts Haidilao’s 2025 net profit attributable to parent to 4.06B yuan, maintaining the 2026-2027 net profit forecasts at 4.796/5.3B yuan respectively, translating to EPS of 0.73/0.86/0.95 yuan for 2025-2027. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 20x/17x/16x for 2025-2027. Haidilao’s single-store model is relatively mature, and the brand still possesses strong momentum; we look forward to successful multi-brand operations.

China Galaxy Securities’ main points are as follows:

2026 marks a new turning point for Haidilao, with comprehensive upgrades in strategy and management

In early 2026, Haidilao reaches a strategic inflection point of “second entrepreneurship,” with founder Zhang Yong taking on the role of CEO, and four frontline female executives deeply involved in the board. The original management team shifts focus to key functions such as intelligent middle-office, with strategic priorities moving from solely cost reduction and efficiency to maintaining core business fundamentals and focusing on breakthroughs. After stabilizing operational data in the second half of 2025, the main brand will promote scenario-based renovations and expand franchise models; the Hongshiliu multi-brand strategy shifts from broad trial-and-error to supporting flagship brands and external acquisitions. Meanwhile, the company’s evaluation mechanism abandons “data-only excellence,” instead emphasizing comprehensive assessments of business capabilities and human care, adding support mechanisms. The incentive system also expands to include dedicated client managers’ bonuses, “Hongshiliu” entrepreneurial equity, and other multi-dimensional models to motivate staff.

Hongshiliu Plan: From a single track to a multi-brand strategic leap

The “Hongshiliu Plan” is Haidilao’s second curve strategy launched to break through the ceiling of hotpot single-category dominance and motivate talent. It was implemented in 2024, establishing a comprehensive incubation and incentive loop. By the first half of 2025, 14 brands with 126 stores have been incubated, with average check prices ranging from over 10 yuan to over 160 yuan. Revenue from sub-brands in the first half of 2025 increased by 227% year-over-year. Seafood food stalls are a core future plan; after the first store opened in December 2025, it has expanded to six cities, creating over 200 SKUs based on fresh market models, relying on Shuhai supply chain to deliver fresh ingredients on the same day, with live-cutting and self-service dining modes meeting consumer needs. The group is allocating resources across the board and plans to continue expanding stores. Additionally, sushi and takeout segments are also being prioritized.

Main brand stabilizes and rebounds, demand resilience validated by Spring Festival data

Haidilao’s main brand operations have bottomed out and rebounded, with average check prices first stabilizing and then rising in the second half of 2024, reaching 97.9 yuan in the first half of 2025, outperforming industry trends. The company’s “Different Haidilao” plan drives multi-dimensional improvements through services(dedicated client managers), products(fresh-cut series), and scene-based themed stores( such as late-night and family-oriented outlets). Starting July 2025, table turnover rates gradually improved; during the New Year’s holiday, over 4.5 million customers were served in two days, and during the Spring Festival from February 15-23, over 14 million customers were served, with table turnover exceeding 5 times per day(, achieving mid-single-digit YoY growth), confirming demand resilience and the barrier effect of the industry leader.

High dividend policy provides a safety cushion

Since 2023, Haidilao’s dividend payout ratio has continued to increase: from 40% in 2022 to 90% in 2023, with the first interim dividend in 2024, raising the full-year payout ratio to 95%, and maintaining 95% in the first half of 2025. Based on the dividend amount in 2024 and the market value as of March 4, 2026, the dividend yield reaches 5.4%, a relatively high level in the industry.

Risk warnings

“Hongshiliu Plan” progress below expectations, food safety issues, rising raw material prices.