SpaceX steals the spotlight! U.S. stock analysts worry that the U.S. IPO market may be hurt as a result

Ask AI · Why Might SpaceX’s Mega IPO Crowd Out Other Companies’ Listing Opportunities?

Cailian Press, April 8 (Editor: Ma Lan) This year’s U.S. stock IPO market will welcome several heavyweight players, such as aerospace company SpaceX, which plans to go public in June, and AI startups Anthropic and OpenAI, which may list later this year.

These companies’ IPOs have generated market excitement, but on the other hand, their huge valuations could drain investor demand for U.S. stocks this year. Some analysts and industry experts point out that SpaceX may squeeze out opportunities for other companies and investors.

Matt Kennedy, senior strategist at Renaissance Capital, warned that historical experience shows that large IPOs like SpaceX tend to siphon market enthusiasm; Facebook’s 2012 IPO is a case in point. Companies won’t want SpaceX to overshadow their trading progress, so IPO activity may slow down in the weeks before and after SpaceX’s listing.

Data from Renaissance Capital shows that so far this year, 35 companies in the U.S. market have completed IPO pricing, down 37.5% from the same period last year. The situation could worsen in the coming months, casting a shadow over the overall market recovery hopes for this year.

Market Depth

The U.S. IPO market is in line, but conflicts between the U.S. and Iran, high oil prices, concerns over private credit, and the impact of AI on the traditional software industry make the IPO process uncertain. Which deals can ultimately succeed still needs to be tested by the market. Besides these uncertainties, large IPOs like SpaceX also pose obstacles.

Kyle Stanford, analyst at PitchBook, said that mega IPOs attract market attention but may delay the full opening window for IPOs until 2027.

He also pointed out that if SpaceX raises between $50 billion and $75 billion, and OpenAI and Anthropic together raise $50 billion, this would roughly equal the total funds raised by U.S. venture-backed IPOs over the past decade.

Analysts believe that SpaceX’s mega IPO is unprecedented, making expectations difficult to manage. While SpaceX’s growth is undeniable, another question is whether the U.S. market can absorb such large-scale listings.

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, noted an old market saying: the bull market ends when funds run out. History shows that numerous IPOs and new stock listings, followed by secondary offerings, ultimately lead to an imbalance of supply and demand in the market.

(Cailian Press, Ma Lan)