‍#Gate广场四月发帖挑战

Israel wavers, ceasefire day sees sudden changes—what is the impact on the crypto market?

On April 8th, Israel launched a large-scale airstrike against Lebanon, resulting in at least 254 deaths, reigniting regional tensions. In response, Iran halted oil tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz, causing the global energy transportation "throat" to close again. The global financial markets also experienced a strong shock, with Asia-Pacific stocks falling across the board, gold and silver under pressure and pulling back, and cryptocurrencies also declined. However, compared to the "Roaring Lion" operation at the end of February, the scope of military conflict is relatively limited and has not escalated into a full-scale US-Iran confrontation, so the impact on financial markets has been restrained, and the crypto market has not experienced a significant crash.

📊Market Review

On April 9th, Bitcoin's market saw a rally followed by a pullback amid the bulls and bears struggle, with the price approaching $73k intraday, but ultimately falling back to $70,942.99, down 1.14% from the previous trading day, with a volatility of over $1,300. Morgan Stanley's spot Bitcoin ETF (MSBT) saw active trading on its first day, with about $34 million in inflows. Additionally, on-chain data shows that over the past three days, large investors have accumulated a total of 10,000 Bitcoin.

📢News Highlights

Although the US and Iran broke the ceasefire agreement, negotiations have not been canceled. The White House stated that the first round of US-Iran talks will be held at 11 a.m. in Islamabad. Currently, Israel, the US, and Iran have not engaged in direct conflict, and negotiations are still expected. The most core disagreement is: what should be the basis for negotiations? The night before, Trump explicitly stated that Iran's "10-point plan" is the "feasible basis" for negotiations, and claimed that "almost all contentious points have been agreed upon." However, just a few hours later, his stance shifted. Trump emphasized that the "15-point plan" proposed by the US is the actual basis for upcoming negotiations, insisting that "many elements of the 15-point plan have already been agreed upon"—despite Iran's previous clear rejection of this plan.

Additionally, there are reports that Iran plans to charge Bitcoin-based transit fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz to evade international sanctions. If such operations become routine, it could enhance Bitcoin's practical value in geopolitical contexts in the medium to long term. However, this is currently just a rumor and has not yet had any actual impact.

📈Market Outlook

At present, both sides remain relatively restrained. Aside from Iran conducting sporadic attacks on Israel due to military command transmission delays, there have been no large-scale bombings. Therefore, the previous view remains valid: before formal US-Iran negotiations begin, the market will mainly fluctuate within a range of 69,500 to 72,700, and traders can consider shorting high and buying low within this range. Once negotiations start, be cautious of any sudden negative news from either side, as the market may still decline. In terms of operations, it is recommended to establish short positions above $72,000, with take-profit targets around $69,000, and stop-loss set above $72,700.