#美伊停火协议谈判再生变故 Reversal of variables, key data expected tonight!

Overnight, spot gold briefly rose above the $4,850 level during trading, reaching nearly a three-week high before giving back most of the gains intraday, closing up 0.29% at $4,719.35. During today’s European session, gold traded within a narrow range and is currently hovering around $4,723.

U.S. stocks opened higher and closed higher, with all three major indices up over 2%, including the S&P and Nasdaq, which have risen for six consecutive days. At the close, the S&P 500 index gained 2.51% to 6,782.81 points; the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.8% to 22,635 points, both up for six straight trading days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.85% to 47,909.92 points.

On the news front, hawkish Fed minutes exert pressure. In the early morning of April 9 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve released the March monetary policy meeting minutes, announcing that the federal funds rate target range will remain between 3.5% and 3.75% for the second consecutive time. The latest minutes show that after the outbreak of conflict in Iran, policymakers expressed clear differences regarding the outlook for the U.S. economy, discussing various scenarios and their corresponding policy responses. Most officials are concerned that prolonged conflict could impact the labor market, potentially requiring rate cuts; however, many also emphasized that rising inflation risks could ultimately necessitate rate hikes.

Some officials leaning toward “rate hike risks” urged the Fed to include language in its post-meeting statement to highlight scenarios where rate increases might occur under certain conditions. Overall, Fed policymakers’ responses to the Middle East conflict reflect dual concerns about their dual mandate.

Nick Timiraos, a well-known financial journalist dubbed the “Voice of the Fed,” wrote that a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran offers an opportunity to mitigate the latest serious threats facing the global economy. However, for the Fed, this might just replace one problem with another: a sustained energy shock just long enough to push inflation higher without severely damaging demand, leading to prolonged stable interest rates.

According to CME’s “FedWatch”: the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in April is 1.6%, and the chance of holding rates steady is 98.4%. The probability of a 25 basis point cut by June is 1.7%, with a 96.8% chance of no change, and a 1.5% chance of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points.

Looking ahead to today’s trading, investors will focus on PCE data. At 20:30 Beijing time on April 9, the U.S. will release February PCE Price Index data, with market expectations as follows:
- February PCE Price Index YoY previous: 3.1%, expected: 3%
- February PCE Price Index MoM previous: 0.4%, expected: 0.4%
If core PCE YoY unexpectedly drops below 3.0%, indicating energy shocks have not significantly transmitted to core inflation, then Powell’s previous “temporary disregard of supply shocks” framework will be strongly supported by the data.

However, strong non-farm payrolls will still limit rate cuts—market expectations may shift from “zero rate cuts this year” to “one rate cut by year-end.” If February core PCE YoY falls as expected to 3.0%, the market will interpret this as a slow decline in pre-conflict inflation, with energy shocks from the war already factored into the data. The Fed will likely maintain a “wait-and-see” stance, focusing on whether subsequent data can confirm the persistence of energy shocks.

Regarding the future of U.S. stocks, Wallstreetcn cites SpotGamma data indicating that around 10B USD of positive Gamma concentration exists near the 6,800 level on the S&P 500 (in the 85th percentile historically). Positive Gamma will act as resistance to further upward movement, and as profits are taken, the market will gradually shift toward consolidation, with volatility further declining.

In addition, investors should pay attention to international developments. The Iran situation remains uncertain! On April 8, local time, on the first day of the ceasefire, Israel launched its largest airstrike since the current conflict began against Hezbollah. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced on the afternoon of April 8 that they had carried out a large-scale strike against Lebanon, with 50 fighter jets dropping about 160 bombs on 100 targets within 10 minutes. The IDF stated that the large-scale attack on Hezbollah is not a “final operation,” and actions against the organization are ongoing. According to Lebanon’s Civil Defense, the large-scale airstrikes across Lebanon have resulted in at least 254 deaths and 1,165 injuries. Iran stated that three clauses of the ceasefire plan have been violated, and after allowing ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz for a few hours, the strait was closed again.

On April 8, local time, the Strait of Hormuz was once again closed. Despite reaching a ceasefire agreement, Iran has strengthened control over the strait, limiting the number of ships passing through daily to around a dozen and charging tolls. Iran warned that if Israel continues military operations in Lebanon, Iran might withdraw from the agreement announced by Trump. Regarding Israel’s airstrikes on Lebanon, the U.S. argued that Lebanon was not included in the two-week ceasefire. Previously, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said on April 8 that the U.S. and Iran will hold their first round of talks on April 11 in Islamabad, Pakistan, led by Vice President Vance, Special Envoy Wittekov, and President’s son-in-law Kushner.

Additionally, Trump again criticized NATO. After meeting with NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg on April 8, President Trump posted on social media that “NATO is not there when we need them, and if we need them again, they won’t be there,” and asked, “Remember Greenland? That big, poorly managed ice sheet!” Trump has repeatedly complained that NATO European members are unwilling to support U.S. military actions against Iran, calling NATO a “paper tiger,” and has considered withdrawing from NATO, citing the U.S. demand for Denmark’s autonomous territory Greenland, which was rejected by NATO allies.

4.9 Gold Price Analysis
From a technical perspective, yesterday’s rally failed and closed with a long upper shadow on the daily chart, indicating ongoing volatility. Fortunately, the daily chart remains above the 5-day moving average, so today’s focus will be on trading around the 5-day moving average.
Disclaimer: The above information is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice! Investment involves risks; please trade cautiously!