1️⃣ Will the war completely stop? Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen?

Probably not. A two-week ceasefire is a tactical pause, not a lasting peace. The Strait of Hormuz remains a key leverage point, and even a brief closure could cause oil prices to spike above $150. Full reopening is premature until a long-term agreement is signed. The market is already pricing in high volatility, not stable peace.

2️⃣ Current position allocation (oil / crypto / metals):

· Oil (WTI): After an 11.91% drop — cautious short or sideways. The ceasefire triggered stop-losses for many long traders. But a 12% drop in a day can be met with a rebound if news worsens again. It’s better to trade based on news rather than hold a long position for the long term.
· Crypto (BTC, altcoins): Moderate long on spot. BTC has stabilized above $71K — this is a psychological turning point. A rebound on improved risk appetite could last several days or weeks. I hold 40–50% of the portfolio in BTC/ETH, with the rest in stablecoins in case of a reversal.
· Precious metals (gold/silver): Long with priority. Gold rising amid falling oil is a classic flight-to-safety. As long as the ceasefire remains fragile, gold remains the best hedge. Portfolio share — 30%, silver — 10% (more volatile, but follows gold).

Final strategy:
BTC (45%) + Gold (30%) + Cash/USDT (20%) + speculative oil (5%) on the scenario “ceasefire broken in 3–5 days.” Full exit from oil longs — only if the Strait of Hormuz is officially closed.
#CryptoMarketRebound
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