Next week's macro outlook: The sixth week of the war, Trump's script is about to collapse, CPI will surge, and gold prices may stage a big show

MeNews · 2026-04-08T18:24:33+00:00

The non-farm employment report released by the United States shows 178k new jobs added, exceeding expectations and supporting the dollar. The Iran war continues, and the market is about to face important data releases such as CPI, with analysts warning, "Now is not the time to trade."

MeNews

2026-04-08 18:24:33

Abstract generation in progress

ME News update. On April 4 (UTC+8), the United States released its nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, showing the country added 178k jobs, well above expectations. Meanwhile, the February data was revised from an initially estimated decline of 92k to a decline of 133k. Against the backdrop of reduced odds for a Fed rate cut in 2026, the report gave the U.S. dollar short-term support. The Iran war has entered its sixth week, and the “quickly wrap it up” scenario under Trump is starting to fall apart. An even more critical test for the market is coming: the first CPI after the outbreak of hostilities is set to be released, and inflation could run out of control. Some warn, “This is not the time to trade.” Below are the key items that the market will focus on in the new week (all in Beijing time): Monday 22:00, the U.S. March ISM non-manufacturing PMI; Tuesday 23:00, the U.S. March New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations; Wednesday 00:35, 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks on monetary policy; Thursday 02:00, the Fed releases the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; Thursday 20:30, initial jobless claims in the U.S., the U.S. February core PCE price index year-over-year, the U.S. February personal spending month-over-month, the final Q4 2026 real GDP annualized quarterly rate, the final Q4 2026 real personal consumption expenditures quarterly rate, the final Q4 2026 core PCE price index annualized quarterly rate, and the U.S. February core PCE price index month-over-month; Friday 20:30, the U.S. March unadjusted CPI year-over-year/core CPI year-over-year, and the U.S. March seasonally adjusted CPI month-over-month/core CPI month-over-month. Friday 22:00, the initial U.S. April one-year inflation rate expectations, the initial U.S. April University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, and the U.S. February factory orders month-over-month (source: PANews)

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