Securities Times: "Trial and error" in commercial spaceflight is indispensable; the growth potential is worth safeguarding

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Recently, after Tianbing Technology’s Tianlong-3 No.1 private commercial launch vehicle rocket lit and lifted off, an anomaly occurred. The flight test failed to fully achieve its planned mission objectives. This setback puts the public in front of the real-world reality that commercial spaceflight is high-risk and highly challenging. At a time when the industry is entering a concentrated technical breakthrough phase, on the one hand, timely lessons and reflection are indispensable; on the other hand, the public should also show greater tolerance for the necessary “trial and error,” leaving more room for growth to support the high-quality development of China’s commercial space industry.

Today, the entire commercial spaceflight industry has already moved beyond the early stage of validating flight, and as a whole is now in a concentrated intensive campaign period with higher technical complexity such as larger payload capacity and reusability. In this stage, the scale of system integration has expanded significantly, and the degree of engineering coupling has increased markedly. Against this backdrop, in the past two-plus years, several mainstream private rocket companies have encountered failures during their development or launch processes.

Obstacles are not scary. More important than achieving a “successful first launch” is establishing an efficient technological iteration mechanism—accumulating data, exposing problems, and optimizing solutions through repeated flight tests, ultimately forming a mature technological system that fits the needs of China’s space industry.

Looking globally, technical trial and error is already a common rule in the development of commercial spaceflight. Before SpaceX achieved large-scale success with Falcon 9, its early Falcon 1 had experienced three consecutive launch failures. As the next-generation heavy reusable rocket, Starship also saw multiple explosions during its test flight. Even so, founder Musk still publicly affirmed the phased results, defining them as “successful failures,” emphasizing that test data and technical progress go hand in hand.

From a more macro perspective, we need to maintain strategic resolve when it comes to technical setbacks in the development of commercial spaceflight. Commercial spaceflight is an important component of China’s space “new infrastructure,” tasked with major missions such as high-density, low-cost launches of tens of thousands of satellites in the future. 2026 is the first year for the first flights of reusable rockets. From April to December, multiple companies including Blue Arrow Space, Galaxy Power, and Xingji Glory will carry out intensive first launches and reusability validation. Domestically, private commercial spaceflight has clearly planned 22~27 launches. In this process, the necessary “trial and error” should receive greater tolerance, and the industry’s room for growth is worth protecting. Only by facing risks head-on, embracing trial and error, summarizing lessons learned, and continuously optimizing and improving can commercial spaceflight move from “able to fly” to “reliable and scalable,” achieving a leap in capability at even higher dimensions.

（Source: Securities Times）

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