Light rare earth prices stabilize after decline and begin to rise again; the rare earth permanent magnet sector becomes active again in the afternoon.

Ask AI · What are the drivers behind stable and rising light rare-earth prices and the uptick in demand?

On April 7, the rare-earth permanent magnet sector opened higher and moved strongly upward in the morning, and then became active again in the afternoon. Huahui Technology rose nearly 6%, and Baogang Co., Ltd., China Zhongke Magnetic, CITIC Metal, RuiChen Environmental Protection, Northern Rare Earth, and others also rose in tandem.

On the news front, according to the Baotou Rare Earth Products Exchange, demand expectations are heating up: light rare earth has stopped falling, stabilized, and is rebounding, while heavy rare earth is consolidating at high levels and building momentum. From March 30 to April 5, the domestic market overall stopped falling and stabilized; different product categories showed divergent price action, intensifying market game-playing and increasing trading activity. Among them, praseodymium-neodymium products saw a recovery in the market first, and market confidence gradually became more stable; medium-to-heavy rare-earth products such as dysprosium and terbium maintained range-bound operations, while other niche varieties moved steadily with no obvious volatility.

Judging from March rare-earth prices, they showed a volatile downtrend.

The Baotou Rare Earth Products Exchange noted that after the Spring Festival, the rare-earth market continued to warm up, and prices kept breaking through the high levels of recent years. However, as prices stayed elevated for a long time, the suppressing effect on trading gradually became apparent. After entering March, rare-earth prices began to fall.

In early March, downstream procurement after the holiday was basically completed, and market transactions declined somewhat. Praseodymium-neodymium oxide prices fell to around 850k yuan/ton. Upstream holders remained optimistic about the outlook and had relatively low willingness to cut prices, but traders were more sensitive to price changes, and the frequency of asking and quoting increased noticeably. After a period of decline, some metal manufacturers made small purchases of praseodymium-neodymium oxide at lower levels, but actual成交 was limited.

In mid-March, due to disturbances from external capital and traders’ behavior, the praseodymium-neodymium oxide price saw a short-term, sharp drop. The market’s wait-and-see sentiment rose rapidly, and purchase willingness fell significantly. After prices continued to decline, traders and producers carried out different bargain-buying and restocking strategies, and market sentiment improved. Rare-earth prices rebounded and stabilized. Although the praseodymium-neodymium oxide price fluctuated sharply, because magnet-material companies mostly maintained just-need procurement, the metal praseodymium-neodymium price stayed at 1M yuan/ton.

However, after entering the second half of the month, another sharp price drop like the one mentioned above occurred again. The praseodymium-neodymium oxide price once fell to below 700k yuan/ton. Then, downstream restocking at lower levels reappeared, and prices rebounded slightly, but due to poor conditions for newly signed orders downstream, actual transactions were limited. Subsequently, prices remained in a narrow range of consolidation and stayed volatile until the end of the month.

Overall, in March the rare-earth market showed a volatile downtrend. After multiple sharp sell-offs and small rebounds, market sentiment became more cautious, and transactions largely remained just-need procurement. Currently, price changes are generally trending stable, but prices are still at a high level. Whether downstream demand can pick up again will be the key factor determining the direction of future price trends. After experiencing a price pullback, upstream holders’ willingness to hold prices may strengthen, or provide some support for prices. It is expected that in April rare-earth prices may continue to trade in a narrow range.

Guojin Securities mentioned in its research report that rare-earth and tin prices are back on an upward trajectory, and a turning point for tungsten prices may be close. The rare-earth sector will continue to evolve toward valuation and earnings rising together, and 2026 will also be a key year for resolving peer competition in the same industry. From the resource side, it recommends focusing on China Rare Earth (the leading heavy-and-medium rare-earth producer, the biggest beneficiary of the resource reform), China Minmetals Rare & Nonferrous (the undervalued, high-growth leader of South China rare earth), Northern Rare Earth (the leading light rare-earth player with clear low-cost advantages), and Baogang Co., Ltd. (benefiting from the dual-track of rare earth and steel in the resource reform); on the magnet-material segment, the benefiting company is Jinli Permanent Magnet (the leading magnet-material firm, with robotics contributing growth upside). Other related targets include Zhenghai Magnet and Ningbo Yunsheng.