The ceasefire narrative has lasted a day, and oil prices are still hovering around 95. Even if the US and Iran reach a phased ceasefire agreement, the Strait of Hormuz may not fully open, and oil prices will remain high. This is a typical oil crisis.

From now on, it’s no longer just a matter between the US and Iran; it’s a problem shared by all countries worldwide. The rise in oil prices is just the first step; next, chemical and food prices will also increase, leading to a global rise in living costs.

Tightening monetary policy to fight inflation? I think most central banks lack the courage for that. Even Powell is not daring to clarify the intention to raise interest rates. Given the current scale of US debt, after raising rates, the government will struggle to pay interest, let alone borrow more to fund the next wave of wars.

Ultimately, the world will still solve the crisis through massive liquidity injections, and currency devaluation will almost certainly be the outcome.