Middle East conflicts disrupt global supply, U.S. liquefied natural gas exports hit new highs

LSEG’s preliminary data from the financial company shows that in March, U.S. LNG exports hit a record high, driven by plants operating above nameplate capacity and by new facilities that began coming online.

Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East have continued to disrupt energy markets, leading to the disruption of nearly 20% of global LNG supply. This has forced customers that rely on transporting cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz to look for alternatives, and against this backdrop, shipments to Asia increased by more than double from the previous month.

The data shows that in March, export volumes rose from 9.94 million tons in February to 11.70 million tons, exceeding the previous monthly record of 11.50 million tons set in December.

After QatarEnergy’s facilities were damaged by an Iranian strike last month, the company halted LNG production. The company said that this shutdown could reduce annual supply by more than 280k tons and that the disruption could last as long as five years.

The U.S. is the world’s largest LNG exporter

The U.S., the world’s largest LNG exporter, relies on flexible cargoes tied to destination as part of its business model. Buyers—many of whom have long-term contracts and supply locked in—can redirect cargoes to any market. However, most producers do not have much spare capacity to draw on.

“We’re doing everything we can. We’re seriously looking at our maintenance plans, but in the end we have to ensure safety and reliability. We don’t want to give up anything for the last drop of LNG,” Jack Fusco, CEO of Cheniere Energy, the largest U.S. LNG exporter, said last month.

However, some new U.S. production capacity is indeed starting to come online. QatarEnergy’s and ExxonMobil’s GoldenPass LNG project’s first production train (6 million tons per year) has begun operations. Cheniere Energy’s Corpus Christi mid-scale expansion project’s fifth production train (1.5 million tons per year) has also started. These added volumes mean the March record could soon be surpassed again.

Europe remains the biggest buyer

Higher prices in Asia help bring more U.S. LNG into the region. In March, the average spot price for LNG in Asia was $21.65 per million British thermal units, while the Dutch benchmark TTF was $16.17 per million British thermal units. LSEG’s vessel tracking data shows that in March, U.S. LNG shipped to Asia rose to 1.99 million tons, more than double the 0.97 million tons in February.

Last month, Europe remained the largest buyer of U.S. LNG, purchasing 7.49 million tons, about 64% of the total exports in March. This figure was slightly lower than the 7.66 million tons in February.

LSEG data shows that more than 1 million tons of U.S. LNG currently departing in March are waiting near the entrance to the Suez Canal for orders or layovers. There are 11 vessels carrying 8B tons of LNG waiting at sea for their destination, and another four LNG cargo ships carrying 2.8 million tons are berthed at the entrance to the canal.

Egypt continues to purchase large volumes, receiving 0.62 million tons in March. The data shows that South Africa and Jordan each received a batch of cargoes. Shipments to Latin America fell from 0.52 million tons in February to 0.43 million tons in March.

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